Is there much consensus on what percentage to put in bonds in these strange new days? Yields are so low, and capital loss is imminent if yields revert towards mean... uncle Ben wants to push us to risky assets. I have responded by going towards high yield muni and corp junk funds, which theoretically won't be hit as much as lower yielding bonds with incremental rate rises. But they are volatile in response to any expected rise in default rates.
So do we abandon the rule of thumb of one third Tbills? I think the Pimco guru says no, but one of the 100 highest rated financial advisors, Gregg Fisher, was on cnbc saying to dump all bonds (for a 40 year old wanting moderate risk). He did say to first stick 2 years of living expenses in a bank account, which is a bit strange because how else could most of us build that up except in the stock market.
He recommends 55% us stocks, 25% intnl stocks, 10% global reits, and 10% commodities... no bonds besides the considerable bank account. So reits play a sort of a bond proxy, but I am concerned about somebodies comment that in a retirement account the IRS can penalize you for having too much reit income and can decide to tax it more than in a regular account.
Also hooking up his other choices with other prominent advice, all commodities are expected to stay weak with China troubled, the gold trade troubled, and oil recently falling. As for international stocks, all are widely expected to do worse than the US except for Japan, but their currency is plummeting. Therefore the only candidate for that 25% (a previous advisor said it should be 50% of portfolios) is DXJ which is a Japan indexed hedged against their intentionally dropping Yen.