Depressing

I'm not sure I understand why you're trying to game the 401(k) in isolation.

Your overall retirement plan should be a single plan which takes into account all the various accounts (as well as future expected additional cash-flows like the pension).

Now, the accounts where you are responsible for managing the investments - put them all together on a single spreadsheet and figure out your asset allocation.

Now, do you have a target allocation in mind? If not, before you mess with things, figure that out. You seem to be trying to time something here - you got out of bonds because they didn't preform well and jumped into international stocks. That was a losing move. Now you've jumped from internationsl stocks into cash because, well, because once again, you've bought an asset class just in time for it not to perform well. This is a losing game. Stop jumping and start with a plan. Then follow the plan.

And that's why it's called gambling rather than investing. If you want to win in the long run, fold that account into the bigger retirement plan and stop gambling with it.

Nobody's saying that. What we are saying is that different asset classes move in different ways at different times. Rather than trying to be in just the right one at the right time - which nobody knows how to do - we are saying diversify amongst asset classes and rebalance periodically if one of them outperforms the others or underperforms the others significantly. In the long run, a balanced portfolio managed to a target allocation with *no* attempt to time the market is much more likely to do well than what you've been doing.

There's no "lock" in. You have losses. They're already locked in by the fact that they've happened. Your future investment plan shouldn't depend on your past mistiming. Stop trying to get into the right thing at the right time. Get into the right thing(s), keep an eye on the long-term, and keep in balance.

If your plan says you should have X% in bonds, get yourself to the point where you do have X% in bonds. Maybe do so in an incremental fashion (if you don't have enough, make new additions to the portfolio into whatever you don't have enough of). The faster you make the move, the more you have to lose if the timing is off -- but if you keep trying to time things just right, you are more likely to not actually get it done.

Now there are some things you can do to try to moderate some of the risk. For example, within the bond universe, some parts look (to me) more overvalued than others. And there are concerns about when the Fed is going to start pushing interest rates up - frankly I'd thought they were going to go up sooner, but it looks like they've committed to keeping (at least the ones the government controls directly - which is really just the short-end of the curve) rates very low for the next couple of years.

Nevertheless, trying to time the bond market (ie. go short before rates go up, go long before they go down) is at least as difficult as trying to time getting in and out of stocks. So be careful with trying to be too smart here.

But keep an eye on the big picture. If you have more conservative investments in account A and more aggresive investments in account B and account B has underperformed, that doesn't mean you have to change account B - it means you need to make sure that your plan incorporates both A and B at the same time. Maybe you really should have your 401(k) all in equities - do you have an IRA which is all bonds? Stop looking at the 401(k) in isolation and start looking at the bigger picture.

Reply to
David S Meyers CFP
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I'm not trying to game it in isolation. I just looked at how it was doing and found it to be disappointing. Being as it was a collection of mutual funds, I would have expected to have made something from it in the past 11 years, even though the market has gone down.

Clearly it was a mistake to dump the bond fund. I've admitted that repeatedly. I got some bad advice which I bought into at the time, and I became impatient with it, because it wasn't performing. It's not that I was trying to time it. I just decided that since I had other conservative accounts, I thought I could gamble more with the

401k. In hindsight, I should have kept my original mix.

At the time I got into the international funds, I thought it was a good idea to do so. Climates change. I no longer think it's a good idea for me to buy more international funds. I still have all the ones I bought - if they go up I will profit from them. I'm just not going to be buying any more in the foreseeable future.

If you look at all my accounts I think I'm well diversified. But this thread was specifically about the 401k. If it was my Roth that was losing money, I'd be writing about that instead.

You say stick to the plan but if what you are doing is losing money, don't you think you should consider revising it?

Reply to
iarwain

Read the book Pioneering portfolio management : an unconventional approach to institutional investment by David F. Swensen. You can then manage your portfolio better.

Reply to
maraba

Guess what, ladies and gents? Turns out I am a first class buffoon. A complete idiot. I have suddenly realized I haven't lost money in my 401k after all.

Awhile back I rolled over some money out of my 401k and put it into my pension fund. This had completely slipped my mind for some reason. When you account for the money I had taken out, I actually made a fair increase. Yes, I am incredibly stupid.

I'd say this whole thread has been a waste of time but I do appreciate a few things I learned from it, so thanks for that. As Emily Litella would say: "Never mind".

Reply to
iarwain

It's nice to read some good news. If the thread compelled a closer examination of things leading to this realization, then it served a good purpose.

Laughing here. :-)

Reply to
Elle

? Hardly. The discussion was good. It helped further the 'lost decade' dialog, which had value. It also serves as a reminder that deposits and withdrawals need to be carefully looked at when evaluating performance. Two thoughts come to mind. a) The Beardstown Ladies stunning performance (they had a best selling book) until deposits were accounted for. Actual performance? Average or a bit below. b) The articles talking about "average 401(k) balances growing X% over however many years." Given the pathetically low average balance, deposits alone are enough to make returns look decent even in flat years.

Happy Turkey Day, although you, sir, are no turkey.....

Reply to
JoeTaxpayer

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