Historical short-term risk-free rates?

Apr 24, 2009 4 Replies

Yahoo [1] provides historical data for the 13-week T-bill, 5-yr and 10- yr T-note, and 30-yr T-bond. At federalreserve.gov [2], I get that information as well as data for the 4-week T-bill and 1-month "constant maturity" securities.



Which of these, if any, is best to use for historical short-term risk- free rates for asset allocation analysis?



By "short-term risk-free", I am thinking of savings accounts or short- term CDs. Is that the right thing to be thinking of for short-term risk-free investments?


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"Historical Quotes" link[2]
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I'm not sure I understand :-) The Fed site may have an answer in its educational sections. A lot of theoretical resources are concerned with slight variations. My impression is, use the shortest maturities (the "risk-free" notion wanes with longer maturities). Your question may be answered by an accurate definition of duration. But I think that if you want to apply that over different asset classes, you're breaking new theoretical ground.

In a word, yes, but savings and CD accounts are more personal, while Treasuries are institutional. A bank can promote with higher rates that deviate from worldwide financial rates. There is also the question of liquidity, and how that notion varies.

Could you explain a bit more about what you are doing?

The risk free rate has traditionally been considered to be the 1 yr T-bill.

Joe

Thanks. Fidelity uses a 3-month T-bill index for their benchmark, and their Retirement Income Planner uses the 30-day T-bill [sic]. Data attributed to Ibbotson seems to use something close to the 1-yr T-bill historical data available at

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the yield curve for various maturities. I would use the one month rate which is currently 0.07%.

You need to be thinking in terms of cash flow. Most emergencies don't need an appreciable amount of one's assets. For instance, a nursing home stay should be under $8,000 per month.

-- Ron

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