Quantitative "Analysts" & the Bubble

Dec 24, 2009 23 Replies

I know any number of people who played the lottery knowing fully well that they were gambling on the future price apprciation and their ability to refinance two, three or five years down the road. Some got burned, some didn't. But I only know one person personally who really didn't seem to know what they were doing. And even that person thought he was getting away with something.

I live in the Boston area, where the house price to income ratios got crazy in the 2003-2006 timeframe. But too many homeowners thought they had hit the lottery. I know lots of people who did cash out refinancing to live well beyond their means for a while. Electricians buying $40,000 boats, jaccuzis, $30,000 man caves. All using their houses as ATMs. Even the people who sold us our house in 2004, made $250k on the deal, bought a bigger house with an ARM and were bust three years later. But they lived the life of Riley for three years. Our income is probably three times theirs, but for a while they lived better than us.

I am a loony leftist, but I am not loony enough to reflexively blame the banks for the consumer end of this. I have a bigger beef with them on the investor side, the way the loans were packaged and the securities rated.

And along the lines of the drug user/pusher analogy, a better analogy might be the addiction to cigarettes. Some people might have been aware of the medical facts back in the early twentieth century and chose to gamble and go ahead and smoke. But far more people were simply unaware of the risks of smoking. The manufacturers and sellers of cigarettes didn't go out of their way to mention the risks.

How are homebuyers to know what is a reasonable price for a house. If the economy is booming in an area, why not pay more for a house in that area?

-- Ron

The issue is not so much the price of the house, but rather what a buyer in a given area can afford, not only at the time of purchase with an ARM, but in the future when interest rates increase.

Another important aspect of the crisis should not be overlooked: the manner in which banks packaged and sold the sub-prime mortgages. It would be interesting to go back into the archives of this newsgroup and other financial newsgroups and read what people had to say about "mortgage-backed securities" at the time they were first introduced.

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