I am about to get traded to a new employer. This will allow me to rollover the 401(k) from my current employer. This account has a significant amount of after tax contributions in it. My understanding is that I can choose to move this money to a regular taxable account or roll it over to an IRA.
In the first case, I could ideally put it to work hopefully nothing but unrealized long term capital gain and, at some point in the future, pay taxes on that gain at the investor-advantaged rate for long term capital gains. More likely, along the way I'd earn some dividends, and long and short-term capital gains. I'd have to pay taxes at rates based on my income along the way, but hopefully the dividends would mostly be qualified for the investor-advantaged tax rate and the long term capital gains would also get the investor-advantaged rates.
In the second case, everything I earn on it going forward would eventually get taxed as ordinary income at the tax rate I'm paying when I take it out.
So I have two questions:
1) Have I identified the right choices and associated issues?2) Is there any strategy or tool to help identify the best choice? Near as I can tell, there is almost no way to tell. What are my tax rates along the way? What are my tax rates when I take the IRA distribution in the future? If I go the taxable investment route, what do my investment choices do along the way in terms of dividends and realized gains? Can I pick better investment choices for gains in the IRA if I don't worry about how much income is shed along the way? Do tax laws continue to favor investment income over ordinary income? Do tax rates change?
Any thoughts?