Why SS calculator does not match statement?

Why doesn't the results of the Soc Sec "Online Calculator" per se match the results shown in my 2007 statement?

(Note: There are 3 SS benefits calculators at ssa.gov. I am referring to the one actually called "Online Calculator".)

Clearly, this is a question for the SSA. But I wonder if anyone here can offer some insight.

According to my 2007 statement, my estimated initial monthly retirement payment would be 1633, 2201 and 2922 at ages 60,

66 and 70 respectively. My estimated initial monthly disability payment would be 2159.

But when I fill in the same SS earnings into the "Online Calculator", using the same SS earnings for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009/later that I earned in 2005 (my SS statement did not show SS earnings for 2006), the estimated initial monthly retirement payment would be 1702, 2289 and 3031 in "today's dollars". The estimated initial monthly disability payment would be 2256.

The difference is small -- 69, 88 ,109 and 97 -- "close enough for government work", some might say. But the percentage difference is signifcant: 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.7% and 4.5%.

Extra credit: Why isn't the disability benefit (2256) the same as the retirement benefit (2238) if I set the SS earnings for

2009/later to zero?

Again, a small difference of only 18.

But the "Online Calculator" explains: "For the disability and survivors estimates that follow, we assumed you became disabled or died in 2008. We did not use earnings after 2008 in calculating these estimates."

So I expected the results to be the same.

Reply to
whatsupdoc205
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Because that calculator only gives an approximate result. To get the

*exact* same result, you would use the detailed calculator
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The detailed calculation requires entering your *entire* lifetime earnings history, so that the best 35 years can be selected, including allowing for the "bend points" in the calculation.

I recently loaded the detailed calculator and entered my history. It gave the exact same result as the numbers on my printed statement.

Reply to
bo peep

Were the statement and the calculator for the exact same year? The amounts increase 4-5% each year (based in the US average wage index). You may be pleasantly surprised to find your annual statement is one year behind.

Reply to
rick++

The calculator has a provision for inputting future earnings, or it will estimate them for you using a choice of several different estimation methods.

I seldom turn down extra money... ;>)

Reply to
bo peep

The "Detailed Calculator" yields the same results as the "Online Calculator". Both differ from the 2007 statement that was mailed automatically.

As I stated earlier, I entered all of the same information that was in my 2007 statement, including entire lifetime earnings history.

Reply to
whatsupdoc205

I had thought of that, too. But SS retirements benefits increased

3.3% for 2007 over 2006, and 2.3% for 2008 over 2007. That differs significantly from the percentage differences between my 2007 statement and the "Online Calculator". (See my previous posting). Those percentage differences also differ from the inflation factors used by the "Online Calculator" -- even if I adjust them for the 9 months (less than full year) difference between my statement date and the date when I used the "Online Calculator" (Dec 2007). (And recall that I selected "today's dollars" instead of inflation adjustment.)

Nevertheless, I am sure you are onto something with your suggestion. There is definitely some kind of "proration" incorporated in the calculators and, presumably, the automatic statements. The downloaded "Detailed Calculator" asks for "month in 2008" [sic] that the statement is processed. When I select "Jan" (closest to Dec 2007), the "Detailed Calculator" yields the same results as the "Online Calculator" -- both different from the automatic 2007 statement. But when I select "Apr", the results of the "Detailed Calculator" change: they are lower -- the opposite of what we would expect if some inflation factor or benefits increase were prorated.

In conclusion, the month and perhaps the year in which the statement (i.e. the equivalent information) is processed does make a difference, even if all the input information is exactly the same (and complete). I don't know why. I will see if the SSA has answer for me, now that they're on the clock.

I am still curious about why the disability benefit differs from the FRA retirement benefit in the same statement (i.e. based on the same inputs and processed at the same time). My interpretation of the disability benefit is that it allows you to get your FRA retirement benefit at an earlier age. Note that SSA FAQ states that your disability benefit is reclassified as full retirement benefit when you reach your FRA, and the FAQ states that the amount of the benefit is not changed (for that reason, anyway).

I'll see if the SSA has answer for that question, as well.

Reply to
whatsupdoc205

In my previous response to "rick++", I indicated that I did see differences in the results of the downloaded "Detailed Calculator" when I changed the (2008) processing month.

That is wrong! There is no difference. I was reading the wrong part of the statement. (The scroll bar really jumps a lot, at least in my configuration.)

In summary, regardless of the "processing month" (Jan through Dec of 2008), the "Detailed Calculator" results match the "Online Calculator" results for retirement ages of 60, 66 and 70 and for disability. All those results differ from my 2007 automatic statement.

But I suspect that "rick++" might still be onto something given that my 2007 automatic statement was dated Mar

2007, and the calculators seem to think that the "processing month" is some time in 2008.
Reply to
whatsupdoc205

Thats the COLA increase. The initial benfits formaula increases by a more substantial amount (4.6% in 2008) tied to the annual wage index increase.

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The intiial social security pension has always been tied to wage amounts rather than inflation (COLA). Wages increase 50% faster than inflation accordign to goverment statistics. Switchint the formula increase to COLA would pretty much end the possibly of "bankruptcy" in the 2040s as politicians have noted.

Reply to
rick++

Thanks. I suspect that is the right answer. My computations still differ slightly; but only only slightly. So perhaps I made an error.

PS: I gave up on waiting for an SSA phone rep to answer.

Reply to
whatsupdoc205

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