I converted $200,000 in a trad to a Roth last year. If I pay tax on it this year it will be $60k federal and $10k NYS. If I don't do it this year I will pay no tax at all. I figured that if I did half this year (which I know I can't do, but I'd really like to) it would be $20k and $5k.
So, I am thinking that a best case would be paying $25k in both 2011 and 2012; a total of $50k. A worst case (if I do really well in the stock market) would be $40k in each for a total of $80k. Assuming both are equally likely, I will do a bit better by deferring it than by paying it this year.
Does this all make sense? Am I overlooking anything? Obviously it fails if the tax rates will go up, in which case the worse case is $90k and it is the same either way.
Philosophically, if the market does well, I probably won't care all that much about paying a little extra on the conversion. But I am not sure I will see it that way.
While typing this, it occurred to me that I could reconvert half it it and pay my $25,000 in tax on half. It has gone up 12% since conversion, so I would eventually have to pay tax on $12,000 worth of income that would be tax free if I left it in the Roth, but that is $5,000 at most. That seems foolish, but maybe not.
Any advice would be appreciated.