Housing market collapse.

Or, quite possibly, _on_ Reality TV.

Jolly good. Bring it on, say I.

Oh yes - maybe they'll bring Angel back...

I'm still waiting for CSI: Broken Barn, Alabama.

If there's enough interest I'd be prepared to run a political party that chooses its leader and policies through a phone in TV vote, as well as raising its funding from the premium rate phone lines. For a considerable salary, of course.

I doubt it. "Reality TV" was never an audience led phenomenon. It exists because TV companies find it extremely cheap to produce, and often very profitable indeed. Hopefully, though, "Reality TV" will at least get little to no audience, and eventually be relegated to a minority niche.

Of course we might start seeing shows where Lawrence Llewellyn-Bowen demonstrates how to decorate your carboard box under the railway arch. Bringing a whole new level of horror to homelessness.

These are singular events, just as sub-prime may be (rather than a paradigm shift). Actually sub-prime may have done us a favour by getting our housing market to a tipping point sooner, rather than later. Skimming off some froth can be a good thing (unless it's a typical northern pint were the froth is actually 90%...)

People seem to have forgotten 'junk bond' scandal of the 1980s. I guess 'sub-prime' sounded better than 'junk'. My memory is that one peddlar of such bonds was hailed for his entrepenurial spirit (may have been in hand-cuffs at the time).

I can't remember who it was it was that suggested "CSI: Rwanda - looks like a machete again...".

On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 11:20:40 +0100, Buddha Rhubarb Butter wrote the following to uk.misc:

I'm pretty certain spending on things like musicals and theatre goes down when there's a recession as people spend less money on "luxuries". Personally they should do a series where people phone in to suggest things to throw at Andrew Lloyd Webber while he's in the stocks.

mh.

CSI: Bend, OR.

Like I said you have lost about 1.15% of your pensions fund, probably less in most cases.

Blue Peter for grown-ups?

"Now here's one I made earlier".

"Lord Turkey Cough"

Ok Lord Turkey, I mean that in my opinion houses are currently insanely overpriced when compared to average salary.

I thought that you of all people would be on the side of poor first time buyers forced or duped into taking out mortgages at ridiculous multiples of salary for overpriced rabbit hutches. All in the aid of propping up a pyramid scheme with the vested bankers, estate agents and greedy speculators lining their pockets.

Yep I'm sure that quite a few will gloat about how rich they are given that their houses have quadrupled in value. But then again have they thought about how their offspring could possibly afford a house at today's prices?

I'll certainly be welcoming a market "correction".

I am, but also of all home owners. People who think high house make them better off are deluded.

A good 75% drop would be lovely.

No, that had a good ending. A Willow spin-off would suit me. Or Oz, the werewolf.

I was really looking forward to what they would do with Illyria, and not just because Amy Acker in leather is rather pleasant.

The posited Giles follow-up would have been interesting. And Willow and Oz made a great couple - "Willow kissage".

No-X-No-Archive

wrote

That would be a sure-fire way to stifle mobility.

If people had to pay CGT when moving from one area to another, even when just keeping the same-sized house (because the old house had increased in value, even just from normal inflation while they stayed there), then they might be less inclined to move...

An anti-xna vigilante? That's really worthwhile, well done.

Everyone keeps saying house prices will crash, well what is a crash?

Mike Holmes keeps saying that house price could crash from 50% - 90%. I like listening to what Mike says but if my house which I purchased for 160k nearly two years ago dropped by 90% it would cost 16k. I could save 16k in a year by moving back in with parents and having no life then at the end of the year I would have the same house I have today.

Rents for my house would cost about 600 pm. Why would I rent at 600 a month on a house that only cost 16k, in just over two years I could have bought the place. Does this mean that rents will fall by 90% too to 60 pm? Just think how much better off we will all be when house prices fall by 90% we will have so much more spare income at the end of the month. Anyone with

100k of equity in their home could sell today wait for the 90% crash then buy a house that would have cost 1m.

Back in 1999 the house that I purchased would have cost about 80k. If I had put 80k in a savings account at 5% it would be worth 118.2k 8 years later. My wage back in 1999 would have been significantly less than it is today. Does Mike think my wage will also crash by 90%?

I just can't accept that my house will drop 90%. Do I think house prices are over valued? Yes, very when you compare the historical graph to wages.

When you see graphs that relate to price crashes they are always adjusted for inflation which make the drop look worse. People in the 60's/70's bought houses and had their mortgage debt wiped out with inflation, what's to say that something along these lines won't happen here as the re-adjustment of house price back to wages also happens.

Lets say that house prices over the next 5 years drop by 5% per year and inflation is at 3% so this is equivalent to a 8% drop, a 200k house will be worth approx 132k, when 200k in a savings account at 5% per year (5%-3%) 2% would be worth approx 221k. That is quite a big re-adjustment in itself, is it a crash?

Also as MH will concur, you cannot time markets and prices rarely drop so orderly, who knows when will be the best time to get back into the housing market and most people sure aren't going to rent in-between. If house prices have only dropped by 89% will MH hold out for 90%?

Mike, I don't doubt that we could see as much as 20% drops during this credit uncertainty as people hold back but there is a market somewhere and this market is nowhere near a 90% drop. This credit issue will blow over and then the banks will go back to what they do and make money from lending, admittedly not in quite the same way but they will continue to lend money to people who are responsible.

Are some people stupid? There are always stupid people! Do people need somewhere to live? Yes and most people want to own where they live! Who will be the real winners? The lucky people who get in and out at the right time and of course people who have inherited money from house sales over the last few years. Will there be big losers? Isn't there always and its not difficult to see the type of properties where most of the losers live or speculate in! Where are the majority of people in this? Somewhere in the middle +/- a few points.

My advice to anyone would be to liquidate enough assets to cash to fund through uncertain times, funding your debt payments is crucial. If there is rampant inflation you may lose a bit on your cash but gain on your debt being effectively reduced.

Also there are lots of bargains as house builders want to keep stock rolling and close sites, I have heard stories of 70k being knocked off a 290k 4 bed detached. If you have your finances in order I would definitely try offers of 30% less than asking. In the majority of cases you will be knocked back, but if you are willing to put the effort in you might just bag yourself a bargain (if they don't crash of course).