Great chart on SP500 returns over time

Rich Carreiro · 2011-03-25T19:51:55+00:00

My apologies if it made this group when the chart was first published: shows the adjusted for dividends, taxes, and inflation returnof the SP500 for almost 4000 (start year, end year) combinations.--Rich Carreiro

Mar 25, 2011 41 Replies

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Elle 15 years ago

New 20-year treasuries were not issued for the period 1987 through late 1993. New 30-year treasuries were not issued for the periods before 1977 and from late 2001 to early 2006. Older 20- and 30-year issues were still being traded during some of these blacked-out periods, but the absence of new issues for significant periods to me brings a bias to the averaging for the period in question (1968-2008). Though I am sure there are a lot of ways to look at it.

Who knows what the author in the piece Dumbstruck cited used. The omission of more details makes the piece seem to be the work of cherry- pickers.

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dumbstruck 15 years ago

The brevity WAS quite frustrating. I did seem to google academic papers by that Harvard guy, but nothing dumbed down to my level. Maybe they are referring to the way inflation can slam bonds, like in the late 1970's.

I think the ivy league endowment approaches are interesting to follow. They were doing wonders, then took a black eye in 08/09. I have earlier posted a long video lecture here by the Yale fund manager, but it was all useless platitudes. Now I realize it was done just as his miracle record was crashing. The article I posted seems to put this in a "glass half full" perspective, in saying they have a great approach other than for deep crashes.

But on the surface the Yale/Harvard fluid diversification seems like any other prudent manager who fine tunes asset allocations based on business cycles etc. - just that they include more exotic and leading edge assets. Here is a monthly example from Northern Trust with suggested conservative allocation tweaks:

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