If foreclosure is so rare why is it a huge problem?

Mar 11, 2009 3 Replies

As of Jan 09, only one in every 54 households is experiencing foreclosure. Thay is hardly 2%, how can that cause an entire system to fail ?



1) Not every household has a mortgage. 2) Many mortgages that are in trouble, are not yet in foreclosure 3) Some mortgages that are in trouble, end up with a short sale (also a loss to the bank) but no foreclosure. 4) Many foreclosures are already completed, resulted in loss to lenders, but are not counted as foreclosures.

If you sum this over the five or so years expected for this crisis, thats like ten percent of households. In some minority neighborhoods its at will be almost half of all houses.

The dollar losses of foreclosures are not what nearly brought down the financial system.

Various large financial companies had highly leveraged positions, based on the value of mortgages. The figure I have heard bandied about is 30 to 1 average. This put fatal strain on balance sheets - a lack of capital, or a liquidity crisis. Linked positions also changed dramatically. In chain reactions, companies such as AIG were liable for CDS they had written.

To aggravate matters, these positions were not disclosed. This created a crisis in confidence, no one wanted to lend, and money stopped flowing. That is what nearly brought down the financial system - it stopped financing. Lies compounded upon lies. Even money market funds became suspect, and T-Bills became the safe haven.

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