Converting an I.R.A. Into a Roth? How?s Your Crystal Ball? New York Times | July 18, 2009 | Ron Lieber
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Why would you want to [swap a regular for a Roth IRA]? Because you think you or your heirs could end up with more money over the long haul by investing in a Roth instead of a regular I.R.A.
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It all seems pretty simple, until you consider this: The tax laws might change substantially, throwing all of your careful planning into utter disarray. We?re currently staring down years of federal budget deficits and decades of looming Medicare and Social Security obligations. If wealthy people convert their retirement funds to Roth I.R.A.?s in large numbers, won?t all of that newly tax-shielded money look tempting to government officials years from now?
There is no way to know, and admitting the futility of making a specific prediction is where you have to begin this analysis. After all, if you get serious about your money at 40 and live until you?re
90, that?s a half-century for which you need to plan.
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HOW ROTHS MIGHT CHANGE At the most extreme end, the federal government might try to tax the earnings on a Roth after all, say through the capital gains tax, which is currently at 15 percent for long-term gains but could go up in the next few years. Or it might levy some sort of an excise tax on excessive balances, however those might be defined.