11/1/2010 - The current market sentiment

The release of US labor report of December has disappointed the investors as losing another 85.000 jobs out of the farming sector was not expected after November losing just 11k in November which have been revised up to adding 4000 last Friday to make the release mixed to some extent. The market was prepared for losing just 20k in December after a wave of optimism could contain the market sentiment especially after the promising releases of US ISM manufacturing index which continued its creeping up to 55 in December pushing the investors' risk appetite up and the US leading equities market which shrugged off the disappointing data and could add to its previous gains. The Dow could close the week above 10600 this time and S&P 500 above 1140 at 1144. The greenback has been hit directly on the data which affected negatively on the USD interest rate outlook but it could cover most of its loses later in the US session with red equities dovish beginning which supported the Japanese yen and the Greenback but the stocks ability to get over these struggling jobs market data tying with the investors' believing in a momentum coming to this recovery sooner or even later could help the stocks weighing on these 2 funding major currencies of the carry trades transactions versus the European currencies. By god's will the greenback can be exposed to further pressure this week as the delaying of the fed's tightening action can contain the market sentiment which is still having worries about the US recovery stability at this point. The gold which can gain technical momentum in the case of breaking 1145$ can be supported from another side as this can add to the inflation upside risks underpinned by the commodities and energy prices building up currently.

Best wishes

FX Consultant Walid Salah El Din E-Mail: snipped-for-privacy@fx-recommends.com

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