The forex market is still trading in tight ranges currently affected by the performance of the equity markets changes. The greenback could find difficulty to push the Japanese yen higher further and it has slided from 98.75 but the bad industrial production of Japan which has fallen monthly by 10% in Jan can underpin the dollar to continue its way up later. The Japanese yen has started to reflect the weak Japanese fundamentals recently away from the pressure of the carry trade unwinding especially versus the greenback which joins the Japanese yen very low interest rate levels currently in the of the credit crisis which caused strong global recession forces and decline of demand.
The gold has given back most of its recent gains falling from 1006$ per ounce to record 931$ today. The gold could get use of the spreading pessimism in the equity markets by the end of last week like the dovish break of Dow Jones lower than 7550 to record 1006 by the end of last week but it could not make new highs this week to be under the pressure of the profit taken higher volume waves again which pushed it lower to 931$ today. This repeated inability to make a clear break of 1000$ and holding above it could form a technical pressure on the gold contained its recent gains and so it was working separately today from the equity markets performances and the oil prices trading lower than 950$ and it should meet a support right now at 930$ which was its recent floor to 1006$ and breaking it can meet an intermediate supporting area from 915$ to 988$ then the main support at 850$ level.
By god's will, we are waiting today from Europe for the final release of EU Jan HICP and it its expected to be just 1.1% y/y and -.9% m/m broadly and the core figure excluding the food and energy is expected to be 1.8% y/y as December. The inflation data of EU are important currently as it can give the market a discounting of the coming interest rate cut by the ECB as the low level can give the ECB the tolerance to cut further by an aggressive way with no excuse about the inflation pressure in EU which is expected to be under the pressure of the recessionary forces. It is also important to watch today for the preliminary release of US Q4 GDP which is expected to be -4.9% and in the same time the release of US NAPM of New York which is expected to be and after this the release of US Chicago Feb PMI which is expected to be 34 and this release always gives the market an indication of the coming US ISM manufacturing index of the same month which will be waited in the beginning of next week and it is expected to be 34. We have also today the release of US consuming sentiment survey of Michigan University and it is expected to come lower than Jan at just 56 following the depressing release of US Confidence survey of Feb which reached to just 25 this month.
Best wishes
FX Consultant Walid Salah El Din E-Mail: snipped-for-privacy@fx-recommends.com