The gold could get back above 930$ again as the risk aversion could contain the current market sentiment pushing Dow below 6600 amid further bad news from GM which suffers the decline of demand and the bankruptcy fears as the current financial situation. As long as this sentiment is still persisting because of the credit crisis and the unsustainable loses of it, the bad news comes underpinning the downward trend in the markets. It has become actually difficult and no signs of improvement yet which can show that there can be further declines ahead and the waiting of these is not welcomes by the investors who take a safe haven position. The gold has declined recently below 920$ touching 900$ in a correction of the recent equity market declines but it could not go down further even in spite of the negative inflation outlook amid the recessionary forces and the increased deflation pressure. The next resistance should be 960$ and on the break of it, the main resistance should be at the 1000$ psychological level whereas the gold always faces profit taken waves and the next support right now is at 920$ then 900$ then 888$ and the main support is at 850$ level.
Both of the BOE and ECB have elevated the downside risks of growth and they have lowered the interest rate by .5% to be just .5% and 1.5% in the euro area. Jean Claude Trichet has downplayed the inflation pressure risks in the coming months even if there is some fluctuations this year but the way of inflation is expected to be down and the recovery is expected to be next year. He has indicated that the ECB has done what's necessary for the inflation outlook over the medium term stimulating the straggling economy. The words were not away of the market expectation and so there was no big changes. It was obvious that the way out from this crisis should be from US first which can underpin the greenback currently until a realized change in US can encourage the appeal for taking risk investing in other currencies.
We wait today for the release US labor report which is expected to show a rise of the unemployment rate by 7.9%, a stability of the average earning at .3% and further loses of the non-farm payroll to
600k after the release of US ADP employment change of the same month which came at -697k which can effect negatively on the consuming outlook in US. We have actually had a decline of Feb consuming sentiment of Michigan university final reading to 56.3 and also the US consuming Confidence survey of the same month which reached 25 and further losing jobs should effect negatively in the consuming sentiment and the business spending which is already hurt by the current weak demand....Best wishes
FX Consultant Walid Salah El Din E-Mail: snipped-for-privacy@fx-recommends.com