Bank's prophetess of gloom
EVERY year an economist has the invidious task of standing up in front of the corporate titans gathered at John Studzinski's Christmas lunch and predicting what might happen in the year ahead. The duty used to fall on Morgan Stanley's economics guru, but in 2003 Mr Studzinski joined HSBC to build its investment banking business, so last year it was HSBC's Stephen King who peered into the future.
England would win the Ashes, he declared. Luckily, this was the one of his predictions which came to pass, not the grim forebodings such as war in Saudi Arabia.
Yesterday, it was Mr King's colleague, Janet Henry, who gamely took on the challenge. Her thoughts were not guaranteed to add to guests' festive mood. Ben Bernanke, freshly installed at the US Federal Reserve, would have to cope with a hedge fund crisis. Latin America would gain more leaders of similarly vigorous leftist stance to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and would thus be increasingly hostile to America.
The UK would see a real slowdown in the economy. Ms Henry went so far as to use the R word - recession. The dollar would tumble. Taxes would rise and a grim housing market would lead consumer spending down. However much he tampered with the start and finish dates of the economic cycle, the Chancellor would still be facing tough times, she said.