What are the predictors of foreclosure rates?

I'm trying to ascertain for myself the depth of this housing crisis that we're in. I'd like to predict the foreclosure rate in the USA. However, I would also need the other informations:
1. What has been the historical foreclosure rate? 2. What are predictors of the foreclosure rates? I would think that it's a function of: 1) The "spike" that an ARM resets at. 2) The percentage of people on sub-prime loans. 3. Regarding the sub-prime mortgages: What portion of them default now and historically?
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That is impossible with as unusual a situation as the current one.

There is no nice tidy rate.

The economy tanking and a significant drop in house prices.

Not necessarily, most obviously when the economy is booming and anyone who wants to can flip the property or just refinance before the interest rate jumps from the sucker rate.

Again, that varys dramatically with the state of the economy.
sub prime doesnt necessarily mean forclosure if the economy is booming.

Again, there are no nice tidy numbers, particularly when the definition of sub prime varys.
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wrote:

not relevant...we are on a new and very thin ice shelf... it is the ice shelf thats relevant, not the side effects you are enquiring about.... this mess will be limitlessly larger than previous disasters for wide range of underlying reasons..search my posts for a llsting of those, or 'erwin schiff' on you tube for example.

see this video of 'experts' on the record, addressing the issues you raised here...that should give you a clue about seeking such advice...

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

Phil scott
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There are a multitude of issues that come into play right now. Among those are the adjustable rates, but the key factor is the decline in values - which is the public's perception of "worth" of any asset, be it your house or some fractional share of a company. Makes you wonder what came first, the default in home loans or the public going "I ain't poaying THAT for your house!!". If you could still buy a house for $149,950 and sell it in two years (or less) for $225,900, it doesn't matter that you have an ARM resetting to 18.3%, you've sold that sucker and moved on to another.

Given that the so-called "sub-prime" mortgages are relatively new, we're still drawing the chart on their history. BTW: It ain't looking all that good.
--
Paul A. Thomas, CPA
Watkinsville, Georgia
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On Nov 16, 11:45 am, "Paul Thomas, CPA"

hey Thomas.. were you not one of the folk touting the stock and real estate markets a year or so ago? / such good investments. Has your view changed at in light of recent developments?
Phil scott
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No. I wasn't. Except to adavocate selling if the offer was high enough regardless of the tax impact.

Yup. It's a great time to be a buyer.
For those who are able - and plan to use the property - it's a great time to buy. Just utilize all those things that many have called "old school". Location, location and location. It's still important as it ever was.
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wrote:

some papers of interest here that detail these historical rates are
long term (to 50's): http://www.jamesgoulding.com/Downloads/Census_Data_pdf/Foreclosures_1950_1997.pdf
short term: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9787/1/MPRA_paper_9787.pdf
as you can see long-term standard foreclosures have rarely been above 1% and fha rarely above 2% but in the immediate timeframe there has been a movement towards 2.5% overall since somewhere around 2006
the biggest contribution has been the subprime movement

yes
the first paper above considers some other societal factors including bankruptcies and unemployment shown in the graphs after the article
the spike has been particularly problematic particularly when of the extreme variety where some unfortunates have had their rates jump beyond income
that's probably the biggest indicator
why any bank would continue such policies instead of negotiating sustainable terms as they saw their holdings values fall i have no idea
i guess they got some good handout money and consolidation opportunities...

the docs give some numbers but sub-primes have not been a substantial market until recently
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- galathaea: prankster, fablist, magician, liar
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