Every spring, a local furniture store advertises that your furniture purchase price will be refunded if some "event" happens. The "event" has a low probability of occurring and is usually tied to the Boston Red Sox. This year the "event" is a no-hitter during the latter half of the season. I assume the furniture store takes out an insurance policy so the cost of the "free" furniture is built into the price.
I've heard of car dealers doing similar promotions depending on snowfall or some other weather event.
I assume the buyer of the insurance policy writes off the premium as a business expense. Does the person who receives "free" furniture have to pay taxes on the refund?