a UK house-price index to speculate on?

Is there a UK house-price index that one can speculate on?
After all, the capitalisation of the UK house sector is almost 3 times as big as the capitalisation of the London Stock Exchange.
Figures:
HOUSE MARKET: av. UK house price: 228,000; no. of houses: ~ 25 million; total capitalisation: 5.7 trillion
STOCKMARKET: London Stock Exchange: total capitalisation: 2.2 trillion
Not sure how they compare for volume.
Oliver
Reply to
Oliver Catton
Not AFAIK. Could try your local bookies ;-)
'Could be capitalised at' - there's no way in practice you could produce an accurate figure. And no real way it could happen, unless you 'do a Chavez'.
A good deal (>30%) is not owned but tenanted, therefore your figure would be lower. Not sure where £228,000 comes from either. Sounds way too high.
If you want to speculate on property, buy property, I'd have thought. Or invest in a property developer (etc).
Rob
Reply to
Rob
Rob wrote in news:4e5936b4$0$2065$c3e8da3$ snipped-for-privacy@news.astraweb.com:
I live in the Barbican, so... (only joking! :) )
Not sure what you mean by 'accurate'; not all shares are offered at market. AFAIAA, the figure is got by taking, for each company listed, the product of its share price and the number of shares. The figure of USD 3.6 trn for the LSE is widely quoted, including by the LSE itself. (Comparative figures are at: ).
Sure, it's not real value in any sense, because if all the shares were offered at market, you wouldn't get the currently quoted price. But the figure is still a kind of measure of the (fictitious) value of all LSE- tradable shares taken together.
Share-holdings can also be leased out or have marks put on them or the equivalent.
228,095 is the Land Registry figure for the average (presumably the mean) UK sale price in the second quarter of 2011:

The Land Registry figure is the best figure available. Of course it's open to various objections (how many houses were sold or even offered on Eaton Square or in Kensington Palace Gardens?), but so is the market capitalisation figure for then LSE. I think the 5.7 trn to 2.2 trn is going to be close to the best we can get. Both amounts contain a large amount of 'value' that is largely fictitious...
We are getting close to my point here! How can we speculate in the other direction? Only an idiot would go long on residential property at the current time. Also you have to buy actual property in an actual area. With shares you can buy or sell an index instrument.
In this sense, the residential property market is hugely imbalanced compared to the share market.
The huge bubble in the housing market is explicable in terms of the decades-long push by money-lenders to get as many people as possible into as big debt as possible. For most people in the housing market, it's easy to 'speculate' long (although it's not really speculation because they need somewhere to live), but practically impossible to speculate short. I am tending to think that what Bob Beckman said in the 1980s was right; he just got his time-scale wrong.
See above. Sure, one could short a developer, but there doesn't seem to be a shortable index for the entire already-built residential property market, as there is for the (much smaller) market of already-issued shares.
Oliver
Reply to
Oliver Catton
Rob wrote in news:4e5936b4$0$2065$c3e8da3$ snipped-for-privacy@news.astraweb.com:
Sure, not all the shares will be sold at market at the same time, but the capitalisation figure of US 3.6 trn is widely quoted for the London Stock Exchange, including by the exchange itself. I'd suppose it's calculated by summing the products of each share price with how many of the said share have been issued.
Some shares are also leased out or held subject to agreements, but I take your point with regard to freehold values of tenanted properties.
In any case, the value represented by the figures for both shares and houses are fictitious.
It's the latest available Land Registry figure for the average (presumably the mean) house sale price in the UK, namely for the second quarter of 2011.
I'd want to go short, not long. Only a nutter would invest in residential property at the present time.
Of course one could short a property developer, but there don't seem to be any index instruments comparable to those for shares.
We are getting close to the next point I was going to make. The UK house sector is three times as large as the combined capitalisation of all companies quoted on the London Stock Exchange...but speculation is really only possible in one direction - upwards.
The writing must surely be on the wall. I'm throwing my lot in with what Bob Beckman said in the early 1980s. He got his time-scale wrong.
Reply to
Oliver Catton
Oliver Catton wrote in news:Xns9F4F96BCBE7A3harrydavis@88.198.244.100:

Source:

What would you have guessed the figure at, out of interest?
Reply to
Harry Davis
Oliver Catton wrote in news:Xns9F4F96BCBE7A3harrydavis@88.198.244.100:

Or possibly it's the median or some kind of weighted average using the LR's HPI, but it's a better indicator than figures from money-lenders, e.g. the Halifax figure of 164000, which isn't based on a representative sample of sales. Even today a fair proportion of houses are bought with people's own money rather than money they've borrowed.
Reply to
Oliver Catton

Though the LR figures are skewed upwards because they ignore sales that are considered as "under value".
Whilst it might be fair to ignore transactions between family members on this basis it is not fair to exclude sales of repossessed properties. As banks are legally bound to get the "best" price for such properties it is difficult IMHO to make a sustainable argument that such sales are under value, but this is exactly what the LR claim. On the contrary, I would suggest that such sales are sales at EXACT value and all others are over value.
tim
Reply to
tim....

They do to a small extent. They do have some notion of a "price below which we won't sell" except that it will be a sensible view of the value and not just "the man from Foxtons told us that one person in a million will pay us this so we'll wait until he comes along and makes us an offer".
Agreed, especially as properties voluntarily sold through an auction are included, but repossession sold the same way are not!
tim
Reply to
tim....

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