Effects of house crash on economy

Well yes, but if you read his full excuse, Greenspan congratulates himself on not preventing a bubble in 1996 at the cost of a recession and further on being rather good at tidying up after the bubble burst.

Naturally he can see no credit bubble nor housing bubble. Quite why this should fill him with confidence when he failed to see the stocks bubble in front of his nose is something of a modern mystery.

This one shows more in common with our South Seas Bubble than the US stocks bubble in the late 1920's. Note that The Great Depression was the depression prior to the bust after that one before casual usage effectively renamed it.

Various phenomena are lumped under the term "deflation". Purists would claim that deflation is purely the monetary phenomenon of a falling money supply rather than it's usual effect on the general price level (though this means that Japan didn't suffer deflation during the last decade despite a falling CPI).

Deflation (as in price falls) due to technological inprovement is effectively a kind of "cost-push" deflation. This would sit quite happily alongside moderate economic growth and few would describe such conditions as bad. British history over the past 4 centuries has seen as many years of deflation as inflation and most of those years included economic growth.

"Demand-pull" deflation of the sorts seen in debt deflations following the bursting of a credit bubble are generally viewed as more unpleasant, though they're simply the realignment of prices, and thus incentives, which enable the economy to right itself and prepare for new growth.

Both sorts have accompanied technological revolutions. There were speculative booms and busts over canals and railroads for example, prior to the one, driven by electricity and the motor car, in 1929.

No, deflation is the cure for this. What we should be worried about is credit bubbles and the misallocation of capital and resources which accompany them.

Sadly, I think human nature is such that we can't be trusted too long with credit. We're just not as careful with other people's money as we are with our own. Quite what to do about it, absent a kind of financial police state which I hope we'd all see a bad thing, I can't imagine.

Then again, there's Schumpeter and his "creative destruction". Perhaps the overall effect of booms and busts is that various things get tried in the booms while the turkeys get weeded out in the busts and progress is overall better than otherwise, despite the lemmings who get dragged over the cliffs in their overenthusiasm.

Whatever, I don't see things changing any time soon. I expect there'll be another bubble along in 2070 or so.

FoFP

Reply to
M Holmes
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It may not apply now, but a relation who was a spec builder used to reckon to build a pair of semis and sell each one for what the two cost, i.e. 100% mark-up. The cost of the land was minimal at the time.

Reply to
Terry Harper

Don't forget that a 50% fall needs a 100% rise to recover. Likewise a 33% fall needs a 50% rise to recover.

Reply to
Terry Harper

So your glass is half empty, and Mark's is half full. Drink up, it's my round.

Reply to
Ronald Raygun

Thanks a lot. Mine's a Laphroaig:-)

Reply to
Terry Harper

Is there any data available on the quantity of housing bought solely for investment purposes ?

In Ireland a recent report

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showed that 26% of properties being sold in the past six years were for investment purposes. As the report points out, a little blip resulting in any selloff by such investors would likely bring the whole house of cards down. I wonder what this situation is like in the UK ?

Reply to
Chesney Christ

Our deal old friends panic, negative equity and self-fulfilling prophecy.

Reply to
Chesney Christ

I agree but it's not a simple thing. The problem is that raising interest rates screws the manufacturing sector.

They really need to think of better ways to deflate the economy in a controlled way rather than just bouncing up the interest rates. Small increases in taxation with the money being diverted into a government war chest (to be spent in times of economic sluggishness) might be one decidedly Keynesian possibility.

Reply to
Chesney Christ

Politician's logic is:

Something must be done. This is something. Therefore this must be done.

Reply to
Jonathan Bryce

A drop in house prices would cause remortgaging to stop. If remortgaging stops, this would cause the so called consumer "recovery" to slow down.

Reply to
Jonathan Bryce

In message , Mark Carter writes

Thus nobody who bought in 2002, or before, would be suffering from negative equity, and problems relating to mobility would affect only a few.

Reply to
Richard Faulkner

"Mark Carter" wrote

That's the trouble with giving them an inflation target that excludes the underlying cost of the biggest thing anyone ever buys. All they've been targeting is the cost of ownership, not that of purchase, so lowering interest rates feeds abck into the inflation targets and enabels a further lowering of interest rates.

This has certainly made the economy more brittle. The drop in interest rates has simply meant people borrowed bigger salary multiples which has forced prices higher. A 100,000 house at 15% interest costs the same to own as a

300,000 house at 5% interest, so of course the latter is what the punters have bid it up to. This ensures that whatever interest rates happen to be, they are spending every available penny on the mortgage, so if mortgages get cheap, they just take out bigger mortgages. A rise in interest rates from 4% to 6% will thus have a much larger leveraged effect now than a rise from 9% to 11% (or whatever) had in 1988.

It's the only way Brown has been able to claim growth. Some Cambridge economists produced some analysis a while back showing that the increase in personal indebtedness since 1997 entirely explained the apparent "consumer-led" economic "growth" we've seen. There hasn't really been any; we're all just spending our houses, to replace the loss of income from

60-odd tax rises.

It would be very unusual though. House prices are usually going either up or down. A levelling-off hasn't been seen in what, 50 years?

Reply to
The Blue Max

"news" wrote

So I wonder what the percentage of stock owned by BTLers is now.

I also wonder if one can model the impact of a housing crash and work out the breakeven level of decline at which it becomes worthwhile selling and reentering? The risk of course is failing to sell at the top and to reenter at the bottom, and of course transaction costs are now huge, so one might need a decline even bigger than Mr Dye's 30% for this to be worthwhile.

Reply to
The Blue Max

In article , Chesney Christ writes

FPDSavills Residential Research Bulletin No 47

1% of sales last year were to buy-to-let borrowers 20% to cash buyers [some will be investors] 56% to previous owners 23% to first-buyers with mortgages

The Commission for Mortgage Lenders also has information on buy-to-let trends..

Reply to
news

Unless re-mortgaged to ramp up consumer spending.

Reply to
Doug Ramage

In message , Doug Ramage writes

OK!

Reply to
Richard Faulkner

what a brilliant post. i have printed it out. i take it you read galbraith, mackay and kindleberger ?

Reply to
sam1967

Very interesting - thanks.

Reply to
Chesney Christ

I guess these figures won't show people who move house but instead of selling their old house, rent it out. I know quite a few people who've done this. When I moved in 1999 I considered it but decided against (bad move).

Reply to
Andy Pandy

There's no way I'd consider it now anyway... in 1999 I could have got rent of

10% of the property value, now I'd be lucky to get 6% with much lower prospect of capital growth.

The thing that put me off at the time was the complete lack of right lardlords seem to have over their property, the hassle they have to go through to get their property back if the tenant doesn't pay their rent, and also AIUI if the tenant claims HB fradulently then the *landlord* is liable to repay the HB!

Reply to
Andy Pandy

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