SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT AAPL, 20080711, 172.7000, 6.2843, 3.6 AAPL, 20080710, 177.7400, -1.1847, -0.7 AAPL, 20080709, 174.8500, -2.4827, -1.4 AAPL, 20080708, 179.7600, -7.3488, -4.1 AAPL, 20080707, 175.2100, 0.3295, 0.2 AAPL, 20080703, 170.1000, -0.9670, -0.6 AAPL, 20080702, 167.0900, 3.3269, 2.0 AAPL, 20080701, 174.4500, -3.7729, -2.2 AAPL, 20080630, 167.9000, 7.1043, 4.2 AAPL, 20080627, 170.3000, 3.8491, 2.3 AAPL, 20080626, 167.7100, 5.2728, 3.1 AAPL, 20080625, 175.1500, 0.9012, 0.5 AAPL, 20080624, 173.4500, 7.8579, 4.5 AAPL, 20080623, 172.8700, 6.2362, 3.6 AAPL, 20080620, 175.0100, 7.3784, 4.2 AAPL, 20080619, 181.0000, -1.5149, -0.8 AAPL, 20080618, 178.4700, -2.6112, -1.5 AAPL, 20080617, 181.6500, -4.7126, -2.6 AAPL, 20080616, 176.9800, 5.5133, 3.1 AAPL, 20080613, 172.3500, 13.2781, 7.7 AAPL, 20080612, 171.9500, 11.1030, 6.5 AAPL, 20080611, 180.5500, 7.8833, 4.4 AAPL, 20080610, 185.3100, 6.6693, 3.6 AAPL, 20080609, 182.0800, 4.6379, 2.5 AAPL, 20080606, 186.3500, -0.0546, -0.0 AAPL, 20080605, 189.9300, -1.0984, -0.6 AAPL, 20080604, 185.3500, 4.8553, 2.6 AAPL, 20080603, 184.7800, 3.5789, 1.9 AAPL, 20080602, 186.2700, 2.2659, 1.2 AAPL, 20080530, 188.8700, -0.3652, -0.2 AAPL, 20080529, 186.9000, -2.0848, -1.1 AAPL, 20080528, 187.0100, -4.1843, -2.2 AAPL, 20080527, 186.4500, -3.2397, -1.7 AAPL, 20080523, 181.4500, 5.9365, 3.3 AAPL, 20080522, 177.5000, 7.5841, 4.3 AAPL, 20080521, 178.5200, 10.2253, 5.7 AAPL, 20080520, 185.5000, 6.1026, 3.3 AAPL, 20080519, 183.7000, 4.8121, 2.6 AAPL, 20080516, 187.8300, 4.3934, 2.3 AAPL, 20080515, 189.8700, 0.8771, 0.5 AAPL, 20080514, 186.5500, -0.6062, -0.3 AAPL, 20080513, 189.9300, -1.8549, -1.0 AAPL, 20080512, 188.4500, -1.9753, -1.0 AAPL, 20080509, 183.5300, 4.6738, 2.5 AAPL, 20080508, 184.6700, 2.1460, 1.2 AAPL, 20080507, 182.9800, 0.4918, 0.3 AAPL, 20080506, 186.5600, -2.0190, -1.1 AAPL, 20080505, 184.6000, -4.1877, -2.3 AAPL, 20080502, 181.0800, -2.2630, -1.2 AAPL, 20080501, 180.0200, -3.8849, -2.2 AAPL, 20080430, 174.5900, -2.6710, -1.5 AAPL, 20080429, 175.3000, -3.8185, -2.2 AAPL, 20080428, 171.9600, -5.0607, -2.9 AAPL, 20080425, 169.9000, -4.1211, -2.4 AAPL, 20080424, 168.2500, -0.9843, -0.6 AAPL, 20080423, 162.3100, -0.8853, -0.5 AAPL, 20080422, 161.9600, -3.3246, -2.1 AAPL, 20080421, 167.3500, -6.9411, -4.1 AAPL, 20080418, 161.5800, -5.8239, -3.6 AAPL, 20080417, 157.2500, -5.6071, -3.6 AAPL, 20080416, 155.1500, -5.0595, -3.3 AAPL, 20080415, 151.3000, 1.7129, 1.1 AAPL, 20080414, 147.8800, 1.6855, 1.1 AAPL, 20080411, 146.8300, 3.7618, 2.6 AAPL, 20080410, 154.8300, -0.2045, -0.1 AAPL, 20080409, 151.7600, -0.2478, -0.2 AAPL, 20080408, 153.6000, -2.0851, -1.4 AAPL, 20080407, 156.1200, -4.6598, -3.0 AAPL, 20080404, 153.2900, -2.3408, -1.5 AAPL, 20080403, 151.8000, -4.8983, -3.2 AAPL, 20080402, 148.8800, -3.5961, -2.4 AAPL, 20080401, 150.2000, -5.6697, -3.8 AAPL, 20080331, 143.8900, -0.8373, -0.6 AAPL, 20080328, 143.3600, -2.5530, -1.8 AAPL, 20080327, 140.6800, -1.6787, -1.2 AAPL, 20080326, 143.6900, -7.6080, -5.3 AAPL, 20080325, 140.4500, -7.9445, -5.7 AAPL, 20080324, 139.7500, -5.2486, -3.8 AAPL, 20080320, 133.0800, -4.5292, -3.4 AAPL, 20080319, 129.4300, -2.7733, -2.1 AAPL, 20080318, 133.0500, -3.6253, -2.7 AAPL, 20080317, 127.5400, -2.0401, -1.6 AAPL, 20080314, 126.7200, -0.1129, -0.1 AAPL, 20080313, 128.6900, -6.7010, -5.2 AAPL, 20080312, 125.6900, -3.4739, -2.8 AAPL, 20080311, 127.9000, -4.6879, -3.7 AAPL, 20080310, 119.3900, 3.0903, 2.6 AAPL, 20080307, 121.9000, 0.7843, 0.6 AAPL, 20080306, 121.9800, -1.6011, -1.3 AAPL, 20080305, 125.1700, -1.1398, -0.9 AAPL, 20080304, 124.5700, 2.5817, 2.1 AAPL, 20080303, 121.1800, 3.3098, 2.7 AAPL, 20080229, 125.0000, -5.1628, -4.1 AAPL, 20080228, 129.4000, -7.4078, -5.7 AAPL, 20080227, 127.2800, -6.1807, -4.9 AAPL, 20080226, 118.6600, 0.8278, 0.7 AAPL, 20080225, 119.4300, 3.0681, 2.6 AAPL, 20080222, 119.3400, 2.0134, 1.7 AAPL, 20080221, 121.7800, 0.8227, 0.7 AAPL, 20080220, 124.3500, 0.5632, 0.5 AAPL, 20080219, 123.0900, 3.8348, 3.1 AAPL, 20080215, 124.4000, -1.2419, -1.0 AAPL, 20080214, 127.1000, 0.2705, 0.2
Forecasts are for your informational purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forecasts are not trading advice or recommendations. Always do your own stock research and due diligence. Be sure to consult qualified investment professionals.
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To illustrate how to interpret the data, we'll use the actual price forecasts for the stock BlackStone Group, ticker: BX, shown below:
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8
First, you'll notice that there are five(5) columns as shown above.
As the column headings indicate, the first column is the ticker symbol (SYMBOL), the next column is the date (DATE), the third column is the last price (PRICE), the fourth column is the forecasted magnitude of future, near-term, price movement (FORECAST) and the last column (PERCENT) is the forecasted magnitude of future price movement but expressed as a percentage (PERCENT) of the closing price.
It should be obvious that the most important columns to pay attention to are the FORECAST and the PERCENTAGE columns, which we'll discuss in more detail below.
Note that the DATE column is expressed as YYYYMMDD, which corresponds to the date of the forecast. For example 20080528 would represent the year 2008, the month 05 (i.e. May) and the date of month 28. So 20080528 is May 28, 2008. Forecasts are typically made on the night of the date shown, typically several hours after the stock market has closed, and before mid-night, in time for the next day's trading.
Let's take a look at the earlier-shown data again:
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8
Using the information we just provided, you can see that the stock ticker SYMBOL is BX, the DATE of price forecast was 20080528 or May 28, 2008. The PRICE was the closing price of $18.6600 (this may or may not reflect after-hours price) for May 28, 2008, the unit of price being U.S. dollar. This is then followed by 0.5215 (the unit again being U.S. dollar) which means that the stock BX is forecasted to likely move up by $0.5215 in the near term.
The time frame for the fulfillment of the forecasted future price movement is typically several days, occasionally more than one or two weeks, or even longer. The last column shows that the expected price movement of $0.5215 is equivalent to an upside movement of 2.8%: i.e. PERCENT = 100 X (FORECAST / PRICE) = 2.8
The value of FORECAST relates to, and may be viewed as a measure of, the possible support or resistance that exists at the corresponding PRICE level, with a positive number suggesting potential support and a negative number suggesting resistance. Therefore, one should always have a stock's bar or candlestick price chart available for convenient consultation and corroboration with its FORECAST and PERCENT readings.
At important price turning points, such as a price top or price bottom, the FORECAST numbers typically become highly negative or highly positive, to alert you to the strength of the resistance or support, respectively. Not only that, the FORECAST numbers also indicate the amount of price movement that is likely if the resistance or support holds.
Where the FORECAST shows a high negative number, it hints that the direction of forecasted future price movement is down, with its magnitude indicated by the value of the negative number, once the stock fails to break above the current resistance. The PERCENT figure will also be negative, to indicate the downward direction.
Conversely, if the FORECAST shows a positive number, as is the case for BX on May 28, 2008, it hints the forecasted future price movement is positive, i.e. up, with the magnitude of movement indicated by the value of the positive number. In this case, the PERCENT figure will be positive, to reflect upward direction.
For better trading results, one should review past FORECAST values for the same stock, and these are typically provided, going back several months. A quick review of past forecasts provides a better grasp of the significance of the latest, current forecast. The reason is that by simply looking at past forecasts, one can quickly see where the past short-term price tops and bottoms were and their corresponding past forecast readings (i.e. FORECAST and PERCENT values) at those important junctures.
The current, latest FORECAST and PERCENT can then be mentally compared to those past extreme values to see if the current readings are at or near those past extremes. If not, one may choose to wait a while, in case the readings becomes more extreme in the coming days, before taking action. Knowing whether to wait will help avoid acting too soon, and this tends to improve trading performance while reducing risk.
Now, let's take a look at the past forecasts for BX (shown below):
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8 BX, 20080527, 18.9100, 0.4243, 2.2 BX, 20080523, 18.5400, 1.4067, 7.6 BX, 20080522, 19.1600, 0.7023, 3.7 BX, 20080521, 19.3300, 0.4556, 2.4 BX, 20080520, 20.5900, 0.1384, 0.7 BX, 20080519, 20.2300, -0.3795, -1.9 BX, 20080516, 20.0200, -0.5328, -2.7 BX, 20080515, 20.6500, -0.9681, -4.7 BX, 20080514, 19.5000, -0.1523, -0.8 BX, 20080513, 19.0500, -0.1559, -0.8 BX, 20080512, 18.9700, 0.2627, 1.4 BX, 20080509, 19.2700, 0.1482, 0.8 BX, 20080508, 18.8000, 0.5186, 2.8 BX, 20080507, 19.3500, 0.6359, 3.3 BX, 20080506, 19.4700, -0.0480, -0.2 BX, 20080505, 19.5600, -0.6820, -3.5 BX, 20080502, 20.2600, -0.9183, -4.5 BX, 20080501, 19.4500, -0.3195, -1.6 BX, 20080430, 18.6000, 0.3533, 1.9 BX, 20080429, 18.8100, -0.1200, -0.6 BX, 20080428, 18.9500, -0.2970, -1.6 BX, 20080425, 19.1800, -0.2541, -1.3 BX, 20080424, 18.5000, 0.0192, 0.1 BX, 20080423, 18.3300, 0.3143, 1.7 BX, 20080422, 18.6200, -0.1133, -0.6 BX, 20080421, 18.6800, -0.6790, -3.6 BX, 20080418, 19.0100, -1.0060, -5.3 BX, 20080417, 18.6800, -0.8970, -4.8 BX, 20080416, 17.7000, 0.0543, 0.3 BX, 20080415, 17.3300, 0.5899, 3.4 BX, 20080414, 17.2016, 0.8348, 4.9 BX, 20080411, 17.7500, 0.5165, 2.9
A quick glance of the above forecast history for BX shows that in the past when the PERCENT is close to or greater than 5% or the FORECAST more positive than $0.80, it suggests prices are bottoming and a future price rise may be imminent.
On the other hand, if the PERCENT is -4.5% or more negative, or the FORECAST is about -$0.90 or even more negative, then it indicates prices are likely peaking, and a price drop could be imminent.
Note that each stock has its own peculiarities as to what FORECAST and PERCENT readings are extreme. Extreme FORECAST or PERCENT readings for one stock may often be too extreme, or not extreme enough, if applied to another stock. Therefore, the history of past forecasts for a particular stock should be reviewed on its own, independent of other stocks.
Even the same stock may change over time as to what constitute extreme readings for its FORECAST and PERCENT. It is advisable to review the most recent forecasts first and then go back to older forecasts, to detect any gradual changes in extreme values. Such a historic forecast review takes only a few seconds, but it will save a lot of wondering and guessing, and will very likely improve your trading decision-making and performance. Forecast history review will help make your stock timing a lot more accurate and profitable.
Some people, on first impression, might think the forecast is for the very next day. It is not so. Most of the time, a FORECAST may take two or many more days to fulfill.
Occasionally, it only takes just one or two days to reach the price change forecasted. It really depends on the particular stock and its special situation.
There are times the forecasts won't be right, or won't be realized. Perfection is not possible. This is no different from real life situations of support and resistance levels that can fail. For example, a stock may be at a strong support level as shown by its very positive FORECAST and PERCENT readings. However, in a strongly down-trending market, or where there is persistent selling, even a strong support level may wear off. Should this be happening, the FORECAST and PERCENT readings will usually warn you in advance of such potential failure of support with less positive readings, as price stays the same or drops.
. Conversely, a stock may be at a strong resistance level, as shown by its very negative FORECAST and PERCENT readings. However, in a strongly bullish broad market, or where there is persistent buying, even a strong price resistance may fail to stop a price break-out. In such cases, the FORECAST and PERCENT readings will usually warn you in advance of such potential price break-out, or failure of resistance level, with less negative readings, as price stays the same or rises. This is why it is important to pay attention not just to the degree of extremeness of the FORECAST and PERCENT values, but also to their subtle changes relative to the price changes. If you do so, you'll rarely have any surprises.
Thus, it is usually advisable to wait for extreme readings, even though that, by itself, is not a guarantee of profit. Such patient approach, with a willingness to wait, and being alert to extreme FORECAST and PERCENT readings, and their subtle changes, is usually much safer and more rewarding in the long run. This is especially important to beginners or those who have only a modest amount of risk capital, and therefore limited ability to average down (when long), or up (when short).
Unless one is extremely experienced and/or has a very large portfolio, it is usually not advisable to trade on minor or modest FORECAST and PERCENT readings, as these typically indicate rather weak or insignificant price levels of weak resistance (if negative) or support (if positive). That is not to say that mild or moderate FORECAST and PERCENT readings are always not profitable or worthwhile, because they can be, especially for very short-term players, such as day-traders. Should one decide to trade even on weak FORECAST and PERCENT readings, on should definitely limit his/her risk by committing much less risk capital than when the readings are near the extremes.
As mentioned earlier, important price tops and bottoms usually, but not always, correspond to extreme negative and positive readings.
Some stocks are "better behaved" than others, or "better behaved" at one time than another. If you find a stock behaving poorly with respect to the price forecasts, then do not trade it, or at least avoid it, but find another stock that is "better behaved". The reasons for "poor behavior" can be many and varied. One is strong herd behavior in a particular stock where the high emotion and crowd conformity happen to be dominant, which can lead to either excessive optimism or pessimism at or near price tops or bottoms, leading to extreme swings. Another possibility is the relative low volume of trading in some stocks that can easily exaggerate trader or investor excesses. The FORECAST and PERCENT readings do adjust even for such cases. However, how successful are such adjustment efforts will vary with each stock.
It is usually not advisable to trade against the forecasts, especially when the FORECAST and PERCENT readings are strong, i.e. at or near their extremes. In other words, very bullish readings hint that one should probably cover short, reduce or close out other bearish positions such as puts, and go long. Conversely, for very negative FORECAST and PERCENT readings, one should consider selling long, cutting or closing out bullish positions such as naked puts, and probably planning on opening short positions. At all times, one should be mindful that even very strong support and resistance price levels can fail to hold when there is strong and persistent selling or buying. Extremely positive or negative FORECAST and PERCENT readings merely indicate strong support or resistance, and the likely future price movement IF said support or resistance holds firm.
Before using any of the forecasts, read the above detailed explanation first. This is critically important. If possible, read it twice or thrice to be sure all the points are fully absorbed.
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