"M Holmes" wrote
No disagreement there, but someone talking about a 14-year cycle which only looks correct for those cycles where we have the benefit of hindsight doesn't strike me as especially perceptive, does he you?
"John Redman" wrote in message news:d2uo6m$rkk$ snipped-for-privacy@newsg1.svr.pol.co.uk...
Well, I dont think less than an 8% fall warrants the word 'crash' do you, so on those figures he should be selling now.
"Tumbleweed" wrote
Eh?
If the correction is less than 8% on those illustrative figures you lose money exiting the market and re-entering, so you shouldn't do it.
Bitstring , from the wonderful person John Redman said
You missed the point - the OP said 'crash', since 8% is =not= a crash, then presumable the OP thinks they're down more than 8% (or will be) in which case sell/buy back makes some sort of sense.
Personally I think it's a stupid idea. I bought a house to live in. I spent a lot of time and effort to get the right one. Whether it's worth
50k, 500k or 5000k on paper makes never-no-difference as far as I'm concerned.Anyone who has a spare one, or two, might indeed worry about a 'crash'. Or anyone planning to sell up for whatever reason. For me, and lots of others, I'll just keep living in it.
fwiw the last Halifax HP survey showed prices back up in March by the same amount they were down in Feb .. basically static since about September, and up 'only' 9% in the last 12 months. 'crash! crash!' is right up there with 'the sky is falling' (Chicken Little, yes?) as far as I can see.
To achieve a decent crash we need either lots more houses or lots less people wanting to live in them.
"GSV Three Minds in a Can" wrote
Oh I see. Yeah, I don't see 8% as a crash either and I also agree with your other point about buying a house to live in it. I've bought and I've rented and I can't be doing with all the crap that goes with renting.
"John Redman" wrote
Ah, but has the average (mortgage) interest rate over that period been less than his "long-term" average of 5%? For instance, at 4%pa it takes nearly 18 years to double ... ;-)
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