I think you're missing the fairly basic point that GB is going to need to raise taxes fairly significantly to meet his spending commitments, and is still committed not to touch income tax, so I somehow doubt he'll see cutting stamp duty as a high priority!
In article , Ronald Raygun writes
A Daily Telegraph headline today said something along the lines of "House Prices Falling Across The Country!!"
However, the body of the article says inflation has fallen to 8.9% in London, and remains at 26% in some parts.
So, in actual fact, "House prices Continue To Rocket Across The Country" but just not quite as fast as they have done in London.
The fact is that, a premium of 3% on properties priced between £250K and £500K is like nothing if prices are still rising by an apparent minimum of 9% in only a year.
Clearly, the prices have to peak somewhere, but where is anybodys guess. Based on the history of the past 30 years, they should be at their peak, (5+ times average income)..... but are they??
He needs to increase his tax revenue, but that doesnt mean he will 'raise taxes' in the way I think you mean. He could spread the scope of tax.
E.G = GB has duffed up the Crown Dependencies in such a way that they will either have to give him info on offshore deposits or introduce witholding tax and send the dosh over here.
I doubt that he can get all that much that way, the amounts needed are too big. Another increase in NI is maybe the most likely way to get the bulk of it, but I'm sure he'll be looking at anything which he thinks people will stand, and despite grumbling stamp duty doesn't seem to cause any real protests.
And indeed most of the reports of "falling" inflation fail to point out that the main effect is the very large rises last summer dropping out of the year-on-year comparison, rather than any change this year. Look at:
If interest rates were going to stay as low as they are now I think prices would go quite a bit higher. However, I suspect rates will be rising by February or March, and could go up quite a lot within a couple of years. The main reason rates have stayed so low in the face of a big rise in consumer borrowing is because companies have been repaying debt, but if things go back to something like normal and they start borrowing again the demand for money could rise rather rapidly.
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