Premium Bond Diary - December & Year end update

They do audit the distribution of wins I believe and they turn out to be in proportion to the geographical distribution of bond holders - many more in the south east. Similarly, there seem to be a lot of wins with newer bonds and not many wins with older bonds but this is because most bonds are relatively recently bought, not becuase the bonds go stale as some people deduce.

When you compare with BSoc interest rates remember that PBond prizes are not taxed.

Robert

"John Smith" wrote

So, you've done a fair bit better than the average would be - you've had 17 prizes! [Average is something like 15 prizes per year now, but at the start of the year was only about 12 prizes per year.]

It would be almost miraculous if your premium bond winnings came exactlly to whatever the notional interest rate is, its almost certain you'll get either less or more than that. Therefore, there is a 50% chance you'll get less. Hopefully it will be a consolation to you that there are plenty of people who got more, in order to make up the averages. :-)

Presumably because you dont have a good statistical understanding of the population numbers, the income,and the propensity to buy premium bonds, of these different populations?

Interesting.

Something tells me you are an anally challenged and not a very nice person IMPO. Sad, especialy at Christmas time but then it is sad at any time of the year.

In message , John Smith writes

I think you have answered your own question havent you?. The geographical split of wins are directly proportional to the numbers of bonds held.

And many of the older bonds will have been cashed in

...

Looking at the nat savings web page, I see the notional interest rate is a paltry 3.2%. Obviously HMG have taken into account the tax that won't be paid, given that eg ING pay 5% (pre-tax) at present. It makes premium bonds not such a good idea for lower-rate taxpayers, I think.

Happy Christmas all!

...but for a 40% taxpayer the PBonds look quite good. 3.2% untaxed is equivanlent to 5.33% gross taxable, which is not too bad for a no-risk (fairly) rapid access investment.

Robert

wrote

Agreed.

wrote

You shouldn't think that premium bonds are "no-risk" - there is definitely a risk (on income, not capital) that you win no prizes!!

Quite, although presumably with enough bonds you can expect near enough the 3.2% over a long period. I think what's bugging me is that HMG presents PBs as a wonderful *tax-free* "investment" - when in fact they've effectively deducted tax at source anyway. I'll save the choice epithets :-)

True - I look on them as a 'safe' form of gambling.

You never lose your stake and could possibly win big money (waits in hope!)

I don't think you can expect premium bonds to match what you could get from a decent savings account, but then there's always that chance...

Best Wishes,

Jeff

But you should think of your "stake" as the interest that you are losing by not having them in a good savings a/c (or whatever). Ignore the 30,000 (or whatever) which you have passed to NS&I (for "safekeeping") - you'll get that back later.

So, the bet is simply a stake of "lost interest" against possible winnings of whatever "prizes" you win.

"Jeff" wrote

I notice the first 1 million winner of 2005 bought their ticket back in June

2004 - swine! :-))))

and three times as well as me.

I've had 5 wins in the last 12 months from my 20K. (unless that is postie has lost some - but how do I find out?)

I'm thinking of giving up this idea.

tim

In message , tim wrote

Go to the National Savings web site and type your Premium Bond holder's number in the box.

It will show all your wins in the last 6 draws.

Thanks.

Worse than I thought. One win (see below).

So to compare with JS.....

20000 originally invested in 1999:

my 2004 went:

Jan: 50 pound win reinvested Feb: Nothing March: Nothing April: 50 pound win reinvested May: Nothing June: 50 pound win reinvested July: Nothing Aug: Nothing Sept: 50 pound win as a 'reserve' (whatever that is). This wasn't re invested and doesn't show up on the above web-site either. Oct: Nothing Nov: Nothing Dec: 50 pound win reinvested.

2003 wasn't any better. I have reinvestments certificates for July and Oct. I forgotten exactly which month I asked to start re-investment, March or April I think.

So 7*50 pounds in 20 months.

Now, who still thinks PBs are a sensible investment?

tim

A client who won 25,000 a few years ago. :)

Or the one who bought in June and won a million on Saturday - the swine :-)