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SERPS / S2P forward projections

Hi,

The only way to get a projection of your State Pension Benefits (including any SERPS / S2P benefits) is to request one from the DWP.

However, I was interested in working out the maths behind this for a small software project.

I understand how to calculate a SERPS/S2P pension - BUT only for someone retiring in the current tax year (or previous years) where I have access to the published 'Revaluation of Earnings Factors'.

However, say someone is retiring in 2015, I wondered how the DWP were adjusting these factors to come up with their projection. After several calls to the DWP, I was informed that this is "confidential" information, and I got no further.

Most pension software I have seen deal with by giving an input box stating something like "Contact the DWP for a projection using form BR19 and input the weekly amount here"...

This makes me suspect that others have gone down this route, and got nowhere. Therefore, I wonder if I am flogging a dead horse spending too much time on this.

Anyway, if I had to guess how they are doing the projections, I would assume:

  1. They are taking the persons current salary, and projecting it forwards by using the current increase in National Average Earnings.

  1. They have a formula that they apply to the latest 'Revaluation of Earnings Factors' (based on number of years to go to the individual reaches State Pension Age), and then apply to this to the years where they know the earnings, and also to future years where they have revalued the current earnings.

Point 1 is easy to work out. I suspect Point 2 could be difficult to guess for certain.

Anyone have any thoughts / ideas / hard facts ?

Rgds Neil.

Reply to
neil
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wrote

I'd hope that was unlikely(!). If it were correct, imagine how the projection would vary throughout the person's lifetime, if they were to (say) request a projection each year...

At times when "current" NAEinc was high, the projection would be high.

At times when "current" NAEinc was low, the projection would be low!

The projection could easily see-saw about up-and-down, which might confuse the individual concerned!

Perhaps instead they might use a long-term average of NAE? Or better still, (say) for someone 20 years before State Retirement Age, they could use their best estimate of future salary increases over the next 20 years; and for someone 10 years before State Retirement Age, they could use their best estimate of future salary increases over the next 10 years; and so on.

Reply to
Tim

I don't think it can be 2 - because I'm in a company pension scheme contracted out of S2P, but I have some SERPS from previous years. In my state pension forecast, the "payable additional pension" increases each year in line with average earnings - and the additional pension earned to date is the same as the retirement date estimate.

So I would say that for past years, they are not revaluing earnings *into the future* at all. They are quoting what the pension earned to date is in today's earning terms.

Or have I misunderstood you?

Reply to
Andy Pandy

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