"The housing market in Liverpool has crashed" Prices 70% down.

In message , Crowley wrote

This site suggests that you can save £190 by switching to British Gas - so if one item is true then the other must also be true.

In message , Crowley writes

Now we know you are truly full of BS, and will use any spurious figure to support your argument, (I was tempted to call it a crusade, but I'm not sure what you have to gain from it.

Your mates on Housepricecrash couldnt tell if the commentator had said

Why oh Why did you have to screw up any credibility you might have had by quoting the higher figure? The lower one would have served your purpose just as well.

It definitely sounded like he said 70% to me and to most of those on the housepricecrash thread ie : quote "Did anyone hear the voice-over say that prices have dropped 70% in some parts of Liverpool?" Admitted there was some discussion on this but the posters who saw the programme heard 70% not 17%. Perhaps HPC will contact Ch 5 to check this ?

Of course 70% sounds excessive, ridiculous even but you're near Liverpool and are probably aware that some really dire areas shot up in price by 3 or 4 times over the past 4 years purely on speculation. I always thought prices in those areas particularly would get particularly clobbered though I didn't think it would be this soon.

As for "screwing up my credibility" (nice to know I have/had some) that programme just supported/confirmed most of what I've been saying on here for the past 8 months whether it was 70% or 17%.

Prices are going up very modestly in Tunbridge Wells. I guess the difference is that people want to live in West Kent.

I'm sure its preferable to Bootle.

Make your mind up. The latter means the last one quoted, to wit 17%.

Why did you have to screw up any credibility you might have had by using clever expressions that you don't understand?

Seems that someone drank the lager out of the fridge.

In message , Hognoxious writes

Hey! Eagle Eyes! Are you here for the 5 minute argument, or the full half hour?

I must admit that I had "higher" in the sense of the higher house price, rather than the higher figure, typed away and pressed send.

Easy mistake to make, but I admit it

I did but didnt see the start so didnt hear the quote. The numbers he quoted where prices were falling, would have equated to much closer to 17% than 70, eg IIRC he was talking about houses previously selling for 160 or 170 going for 140 or so.

well of course it 'sounded' more like 70% to you lot!

It didnt support a 'crash' across the UK, just that prices had fallen in particular (run down=undesirable) areas of one city in the UK. If these are areas that, as you yourself say, previously 'shot up' 3 or 4x, then its not exactly typical is it! You could perhaps extrapolate this to anywhere else that prices have gone up 3 or 4x in 4 years, in run down areas.

LOL

I hope you're not suggesting we might be biased ? ;-)

Fair point, but falls anywhere of 70% (or 17%) are still significant.

IMO rundown areas of towns and cities like Liverpool, Salford, Burnley etc where prices shot up on speculation by ridiculous multiples are going to be hardest hit along with inner-city newbuild "apartment" blocks.

In message , Crowley writes

The site is obviously biased. The glee with which some of them seem to welcome anything which supports the likelihood of a crash is actually quite unnerving. Having said that, the situation in the market at present means that there is clearly a chance of a crash.

Equally, there is a chance of a soft landing with a relatively small fall, (10% to 15% or so), or a levelling off.

Anyway, I've watched the programme now, and it certainly sounded like

Notwithstanding that, the programme producer had clearly decided that the show was going to highlight the failures of the "competitors", (couldnt work out if it was their own money, or the TV companys' money they were "playing with").

What I couldnt believe, (amongst other things - for another thread), was the way in which the 70% was mentioned and passed over, without even a brief discussion of the area, or the house/s where this had happened. I wouldnt be surprised if the producer knew that further investigation would destroy the impact.

It's certainly the first I've heard of any significant falls, (£150,000 to £132,500), so I've had a quick look at Moss Side and Moston, my own local barometers, and houses still seem to be selling at their boom prices.

Moss Side Terrace 1994 £7K 2006 £75K Moston Terrace 1994 £12K 2006 £45K

These places truly are the pits!

So as per Tumbleweed:

unquote

Accepted :-)

Those prices are high for crappy areas like that but they don't seem to have risen by as much as they have in similiarly rundown parts of Merseyside, terraces in parts of Birkenhead for instance 30 to £35K

You're not kidding ! Manchester's my home town so I know them well.

There is only one independent, reliable source of house price information, the Land Registry.

Show me the LR prices which validate this statement.

I'm quite happy to wait for the quarter 1 figures to be published.

Daytona

Ask the producer of the programme on Channel 5, its him/them making the claim about 70% price falls ...............

How to be a Property Developer

Five

Property developer Gary McCausland follows the progress of two couples trying to make money from buying and selling property. Liverpudlians Amanda and Tracy have gone well over budget and are still struggling to find a buyer. Will they accept their losses and sell? And in Bristol best mates Jem and Dave are flying high after making a killing on their first house. But beginner's luck soon runs out when they rush into buying their second property. Will they be stuck with a property no one wants?

Give Gary McCausland a ring and ask him what he thinks he's playing at....................

Channel Five

Contact information

Address

Telephone

Website

Email snipped-for-privacy@five.tv

Tell him to put up or shut up LOL

Likewise

Some comment on that prog. from

Channel 5 uses the "C"word (crash) before watershed

Firstrung has published many articles in relation to the recent boom in prices in areas such as Liverpool, where there does not appear to be any underlying economic structure to support such high prices. Median wages are still amongst some of the lowest in the UK, outward migration is still high, the over development is truly fantastic (in the true sense of the word) and yet prices have followed the National trend which rippled out from the South East to affect every area of the country.

Firstrung published an article in August this year regarding the boom in auction purchases, the comments of the partner in the agency are telling. This particular auctioneer has seen sales slip to 60% of lots, from close on 100% at the peak in the second/third quarter 2004.

Tales of packed rooms and Londoners jamming the corridors of the 6.30 from Euston were anecdotal. However, when properties in certain areas of Liverpool were still priced at sub 30K, it was easy to see the attraction.

Most of these cheap peak auction properties have now been flipped, or sold after refurbishment. In fact searches on nethouseprices against certain addresses can reveal the game of musical chairs as properties changed hands as much as three times in three successive auctions.

That game is now very much up at auction. The alarming evidence of auctioneers taking bids off the wall is akin to desperation. Despite the positive spin, auctioneers are having to work the room incredibly hard to keep the sales figures high.

There is still the belief amongst some that there is money to be made from a falling market, buying from desperate sellers to then flip the property at a small profit appears to be the last throw of the dice for bullish investors. On reflection the Liverpool investors would perhaps have been better focusing on that as an exit strategy.

Whilst fascinating to witness the crash word used in relation to the loss made on the sale in Liverpool, a note of caution, this was not their own money. The programme makers have financed their acquisition. Win or lose it will not have dire consequences on their financial future. The programme could therefore be considered contrived, would not the vendors have worked that bit harder to achieve a greater sale value if the loss impacted on their own finances?

However, it could be argued that the programme is a refreshing change from the constant stream of property makeover shows, or those suggesting that a lick of paint and laminate flooring can return thousands in a short space of time. For that reason alone channel 5 should be applauded for their efforts.

....and more comments here.....

In message , Crowley writes

In the Liverpool case, they almost certainly wouldnt have bought a house in such poor structural condition, and I wonder how much pressure they were under to buy something. I presume there would have been a deadline

- If it was their own money, it would have been earning £12,500 a year in the bank, but that wouldnt have made for interesting TV

Furthermore, they wouldnt have built the extension, and nor would they have been so cavalier with their budget - they wouldnt have been laughing either!

Also, the Guys from Bristol certainly seemed under pressure to spend their £30K whilst waiting for the money from their other house. (I wonder how the guy who was buying it feels now that they have told him he could have had it for loads less.

The thing is.... the skill is now in finding a very poorly presented house, and the true sharks of the development world will also highlight several problems which can be made to look serious to the seller but which are fairly minor details for the developer.

E.g. a few slipped slates and a bit of moss - it needs a new roof

wiring over 10 years old - it needs completely rewiring

a bit of damp and, even better, a bit of mould - it needs a complete damp course, and could have dry rot

paint peeling off the windows - it needs new windows

New kitchen and bathroom go without saying

When.... in reality, a good clear out, a few odd jobs, a clean, a coat of paint and some carpets, possibly a cheap kitchen and bathroom... jobs a good 'un

... have a pair like Sarah Beeny's, so no-one notices if you give bad advice? :)