As a simple-minded old geezer, I expect to be told believable things about the operation of the economy, but that never seems to happen.
In particular, I can't see that 'The Deficit' could exist based only on government spending, not unless they're playing silly games like saying 'we spent 10 billion yesterday, and we haven't yet got it back in tax so there's a deficit'. (I'm no lover of ever-expanding government, and maybe they would lie in that way, but I doubt it).
It seems to me that the only way the government could _not_ get it all back in tax is if people/companies/banks send the money overseas to pay for goods etc., and we don't export as much as we buy so it doesn't balance out.
Surely money spent by the government which remains in the country quickly returns to the government? If they spend 10 billion now, the first thing that would happen if you assume a 10% tax rate is that they would get back 1 billion. That would leave 9 billion to be spent, i.e. passed on to others, who in turn would pay tax of 900 million before passing on 8.1 billion to others. The amount left in circulation quickly declines as the gov't. gets successive tax bites. Add in a few fixed charges instead of 10% and all the cash has soon returned to its source.
People who put money in the bank don't change the situation - the bank lends it out again as quickly as it can. Which creates a multiplier effect, but doesn't stop the gov't. from getting money back.
People who avoid/dodge tax don't really change the situation (unless everyone does); that just delays the return of cash to the government a little.
If that's correct - and I can't see why it would not be correct - then the deficit would have to be caused by money leaving the country.
You can certainly throw people out of work by cutting government spending, and reduce their wages/salaries, which would presumably reduce their purchases from abroad.
That might fix a so-called deficit which was really a trade imbalance.
But it might also have the opposite effect.
One would think that most companies would rely in part on domestic sales, or on goods from other companies who are reliant on domestic sales, and those sales would decline.
The companies might go out of business, which would worsen rather than improve a trade imbalance.
I realise that it's all hugely complicated and makes predicting next year's weather seem straightforward. But nowhere does there seem to be any examination of the issues in plain language, even if no conclusions are drawn. I'm a quarter of the way through a popularised book about economics, and so far have learned nothing. Beginning to think it could have been compressed to 4 pages instead of 400. (Could it be that no one knows, and in consequence no one wants to say?)