"Worst housing market for 30 years" as estate agents admit to "overpricing". House price crash on the way ?

No, You get the same answer from the last time someone asked

In England outside M25 but less than an hour from London.

Oops.

tim

In message , "tim (moved to sweden)" writes

For fear of repeating something, why are you called Tim (moved to Sweden)?

To differentiate me from the other one. We often got confused for each other when we posted with the same name.

tim

Estate agents are too thick to understand that and too dishonest to accept it, or both.

In message , John Redman writes

Possibly/probably

but...

I was once asked to do a deal like this by a client, related only to the selling price, and I agreed and made more than the usual fee.

Having achieved this, I went on to offer it to all other sellers for a while and got no takers, and no business from those who I offered it to. My perception was that they were suspicious of something out of the ordinary, and thought that I might be trying to pull a fast one.

My conclusion was that most sellers were too thick to understand it!

Wasnt sure whether to put a after that, and decided against it.

Surely you didn't have to actually move to sweden to differentiate yourself, couldn't you have done something less drastic?

Jim.

In message , "tim (moved to sweden)" writes

Did you move to Sweden and return, or was it an arbitrary choice?

all those equate to 'builders making less money than previously'

"earthly portents" nevertheless.

Is "arbitrary choice" a new spin-term for "lie"?

Besides, aren't "tim" and "Tim" already different enough?

"Richard Faulkner" wrote

I suppose a problem with ignoring the "target date" is that an unscrupulous estate agent would (in a rising market) sit on his laurels for a while, waiting for the house value to rise and thereby get a better commission for no extra work.

In message , Tim writes

Cant argue with that, although in my case, there was always the freedom for the seller to terminate the contract with almost no notice, (14 days).

Some of my competitors had agreements which committed sellers to a minimum of 6 months, and a months notice.

I actually lost count of the number of people who came to me dissatisfied with their agent, and who didnt realise they had signed a 6 month agreement. (Oh to have the power of one of the national brands ).

In message , Crowley writes

Whatever that means

I'm posting from Sweden today.

I spend some of my spare time in the UK where I have a house other investments and consequently pay some taxes.

tim

you would think, so but lots of people didn't

tim

:-( I moved because of a job opportunity, not to change my mail address (I think you know this).

As I'm sure you are aware, as an oldie I find job opportunities in software development are more difficult to get in the UK than in other countries. For the first time in ages I am not the oldest in the department.

tim

Perhaps not directly, but the mortgage lenders will be doing so, collectively. IOW, if the couple sitting in front of you are graduates, in safe employment, and with apparently sensible attitudes towards money/debt/saving, you will be more likely to loan them some money than if they are chavs, even if the latter are equally able to flash ready money around today.

Note that the steady middle-classification of society, the increasing proportion of graduates, increasing general levels of home ownership and other similar indicators all make it more likely that "random" first-time buyers or re-mortgagers will be able to get loans.

OTOH, even if there is expected to be a higher interest rate [say] ten years hence, it is *also* expected that we will be a better-off, more middle-class [etc] society, easily able to pay the resulting mortgage.

At current interest rates, the multiplier is about 10; IOW, a 0.25% rise/fall in interest rates will cause a fall/rise of about

2.5% in affordability, and therefore in house prices. Of course, there is likely to be a delay, as the mechanism is indirect [fewer/ more people can afford a particular house, so houses sell less/more quickly, and are less/more likely to reach the asking prices, so the next wave of houses gets pitched a little lower/higher until the affordability is restored]. And, of course, ...

..., changes to interest rates are also likely to have an effect on general levels of confidence in the economy.

[house divided into flats:] [change in balance of transactions:]

IOW, the consensus [over yours and other responses] seems to be that published house prices are essentially meaningless as indicators of inflation in the housing market, which is what people seem to be using them for. It's rather as though someone noted that cups of coffee had gone up over the past decade from 35p to #2 [shock, horror] without pointing out that the typical cup had changed from "instant" in a local cafe to a large speciality coffee in Starbucks/Costa/Nero.

How often these days are 'the couple sitting in front of you'? Surely its all done by post, email, phone and the net.

First time buyers have shrunk to an all-time low of 7%, down from a peak of nearly 50% in 1999. Thats a near 85% reduction and means the removal of the bottom rung of the housing ladder. So what's left to prop it up ?.......................

Lucky number seven?

37&catG-0-0 The property news in the U.K. is always awash with predictable statistics. Even when bad news is published first time buyers stare helplessly, frozen at the sidelines as inevitably the data once washed, spun, hung out to dry and neatly folded, remains consistently optimistic for home owners, lenders and for those set to continually profit from the industry....

Rightmove pointing to a 1% increase in house price inflation.... Nationwide predicting, (using the disturbing language of "a managed and controlled slowdown in the housing market"), prices to grow perhaps by

3%in 2006.... The Halifax publishing similar assumptions....strange how one glaring statistic has evaded them all in recent months. Could it be that there is a reason various data sources ignore the most alarming statistic that month by month steadily reduces? At what point will the acknowledgement surface that the most glaring statistic for proof as to which way the property market is headed is the amount of new entrants into that market place? Let`s suspend belief for a time, what if the figures actually begin to approach near zero, what then? A reliance on the continual game of spoof and hot potato played out amongst those further up the rungs to continually provide the illusion that property only ever increases in value?

Let`s put aside the search for triggers to propel falls in property values for one moment, when looking for a pointer for the property market to correct massively in coming years it is quite simply to be found in the absent number of first time buyers.

According to data recently published by the N.A.E.A., the percentage of first time buyers reached an all time recorded low towards the final quarter of 2005 to stand at close on 7%. That is down from a peak of nearly 50% in 1999.

In short the first time buyer figures have imploded, shrinking by nearly 85% in 6 years. In recent times has there ever been such a volatile indice when related to the housing market?

Can first time buyers confidently expect this alarming statistic to grace the front pages of the most popular newspapers some time soon? Not a chance.

The main titles occasionally like to dabble with the odd headline grabbing title of "Property Crash". However, these are soon replaced by reverse headlines as various paymasters, in the form of advertisers, exercise their considerable lobbying muscle in order that the publishers stay on message, with articles that reflect what is best for their clients interests.

This 7% statistic has not passed by anonymously. It may prove to be ultimately unlucky for some if historically it indicates a market that has run its course. Firstrung has stated before that for a housing market to continue in any form, in all its various component parts, new entrants are necessary. These cannot be existing customers only, fresh customers are needed for new opportunities to be exploited within that or indeed any other market.

The fact that new entrants have disappeared to such an extent could herald a collapse in values far greater than any market commentator could have dared to predict.