BBC's Business Correspondent says house prices are unsustainable and predicts a surge in repossessions.

Feb 22, 2006 3 Replies

Oh dear..............



Dear Prudence, please say I'm wrong over house prices



By Jeff Randall (Filed: 22/02/2006)



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Finer minds than mine keep telling us that there's no need to worry about a house-market bubble: prices will continue to rise because there are more buyers than sellers. But just in case you're about to jump on the property bandwagon, here are a few facts that may prompt a moment's reflection.



A survey this week by Rightmove, an online estate agency, found that the average house price in England and Wales has jumped above £200,000. By contrast, UK salary levels remain relatively unexciting. The average for men is £25,000; for women, considerably less than that.



So, in order for the average bloke to buy the average house, he must borrow eight times his annual income.



Unless, that is, he's purchasing with the average woman as his partner, in which case they must borrow "only" four-to-five times their joint earnings.



My financial adviser tells me that, even in these times of historically low interest rates, the prudent level of borrowing for a couple is no more than three times their combined income. Gearing higher than that is unduly risky.



Ah, I can hear you say, but what about savings? Mr and Mrs Average don't have to borrow the full amount to buy the average house, because they have some cash tucked away.



Well, figures from the Halifax suggest that the average British household has savings of £10,000. So even if all of it is used as a deposit, my average couple still need to borrow £190,000, way beyond the bounds of prudence.



If I'm missing something here, please write and tell me. If I'm not, it seems that for many would-be buyers, house prices have delinked from economic reality.



The gap is being filled by unsustainable borrowings, which, I believe, will lead inevitably to a surge in repossessions.



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Yes, he is missing something blindingly obvious here. He keeps talking about averages. Both salaries and house prices have highly skewed distributions, so averages (if by average you mean 'arithmetic mean', which is what people usually do mean) are really not very helpful figures. Maybe an average house costs £200K, but if you're earning £25K then you're probably not going to be looking for an average house. You'd probably buy a flat for £100K instead.

As for the wider question of whether house prices are sustainable, I find that very difficult to call. 3 years ago I would have said that a crash was inevitable, as house prices have clearly risen way ahead of earnings, but given that people are still buying houses somehow, now I'm not so sure.

Dear Prudence, please say I'm wrong over house prices

By Jeff Randall (Filed: 22/02/2006)

Hmmmm RightMove - wouldn't be considering a float would they..?

"Crowley" wrote

OK, so some people have savings of Nil, some have savings of 10K, and others have savings of much more than 10K.

Those having just bought a house, ie having just paid out a deposit, will tend to have the *lower* amounts.

Those just about to buy a house, ie after saving-up for a while for a deposit, will tend to have the *higher* amounts (and after they buy the house will become people with the lower amounts!).

"Crowley" wrote

You forgot that the "average couple who is just about to buy a house", will have -- on average -- **more** than 10K in savings!!

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