Housemarket rising - for the first time in a year??

I'm sure none of us believe everything the salesman tells us if we're buying a used car so why do so many people leave their brains behind (I'm not suggesting you do R !) when listening to the soothing tones of the housing market propagandists ?

For starters.....lower volumes are an indicator of falling prices not rising.

Here's an alternative view from

"A drop of 5 per cent in prices in the next two years would be unwelcome, but would not have a deep impact. This is the way the great house price crash that never was has ended: not with a bang but a whimper".

FIRSTRUNG COMMENT:

Quite who the author is referring to by using the phrase "unwelcome" in relation to house price falls is unclear. However, in his personal blog Peter Conradi, the author of this collated article, is described as being obsessed with overseas property. This could explain the rather unfortunate quote Firstrung has highlighted.

The damage that sustained periods of inflated house prices can inflict on an economy can only be measured retrospectively. With house price growth in 2005 at near zero, when adjusted by overall levels of inflation, it is surely more likely that house price inflation observed in isolation has crashed. A fall from 22-23% down to near zero in the space of 18 months is dramatic in economic terms.

The last major correction in house prices was measured over a four year period. In order to rebut the article an argument could just as easily be put forward that the UK has experienced the start of an economic cycle which will result in prices falling further.

Market commentators are fond of manipulating various data to suit their opinion, using a 0.1% increase in values as evidence that house prices are now back on an upward curve is neither optimistic, naïve or reckless. It`s just plain daft. "

"Crowley" wrote

So - when Hometrack say something you want to hear, we should listen; but when Hometrack say something opposite, we shouldn't listen?

Yeah right. Are you eating that cake or keeping it?

Try to be discriminating. Look at the figures and the "small print" not the spin.

Caveat emptor...remember ?

indeed but not forgetting that housing market propagandists, by definition, include those who talk the market down, like yourself.

Indeed (would I could 'talk the market down') but also not forgetting that those on 'my side' are up against the combined might of the banks and building societies like Halifax, Nationwide and the other lenders, estate agents, and all their friends in the Blair Broadcasting Corp. and the rest of the media much of which gains a great deal of revenue from property advertising and has a vested interest in keeping the pack of cards standing.

I'm just a small voice crying out in the wilderness but am secure in the knowledge that the wealthy vested interests and their tsunami of spin cannot buck the market for much longer.

Volume on its' own indicates nothing. Usually, reducing prices increases volume, or increasing volume reduces prices. Supply and demand dictate price. If volumes fall and prices rise or stay the same, it suggests that supply has fallen at the same rate, (or more than), demand.

I only posted to wind you up....

a sterling effort well applied....

.1% means a substantial fall in the face of fiat currency...

regards...

As if whatever they say has any effect at all. What they do yes, what they say, no.

Ah nothing like a good conspiracy theory to keep things going :-)

In message , abelard writes

No idea what you mean, (fiat currency??)

presumably the 0.1% rise is a substantial rise in fiat currency

the reverse...*if* i understand how you mean that....

a fiat currency is a currency unbacked by real assets... most currencies in the world are now like that to varying degrees...

the real value of fiat currencies fall steadily year on year (most all of the time)

Although, IIRC, Central banks don't trust other Central banks' currencies so only settle in Gold?

most settlements are in money blips... however many central banks do keep ginormous amounts of gold... to the extent of ~30,000 tonnes... it is estimated that if they dumped it on the market the gold price would fall below $100 an ounce...the international banking thus is an effective cartel keeping the price of gold artificially high...

there is surreptitious movement to try to dump it as non-performing assets without wrecking the market...

this may be of use to you

In message , abelard writes

So you meant that a 0.1% rise in the value of houses is a substantial fall in the face of fiat currency - I think

Aha!

Just had a look at your web site and you are way ahead of me!

Having said that, it seems that having my money invested in houses seems better than having it invested in money. Even if the value of houses goes up and down, I will always have the land, bricks and mortar, accommodation etc...

yes...

there are bubble elements in most markets....it does not pay to be in at the top of a bubble market... but to avoid that is no easy walk.... there is essentially no way of telling in advance...only to make the best judgements you can....

this may interest you

yes..

regards..