Where are we currently with this debate? Is it still inflation followed by deflation or is the deflation now sooner than we think.
What effect has the worlds governments cash injections/meddling had with your predictions, will this just mean that it won't be as bad but the downturn will last longer ala Japan?
I have all my money in cash, it doesn't seem anywhere is safe, even commodities are in reverse. Where are you invested at the moment.
Also have you had published any recent articles that I can read?
I reckon the first signs of deflation may now be appearing.
If it causes inflation to ris, the bondholders will raise rates and crucify housing markets, ratcheting this thing another turn tighter.
If the governments are just destroying wealth trying to support bad debt, then that will in the end prove deflationary.
Gold and cash in deposit accounts. I admit though, I've started thinking about how to get it all out. Anyone know where I would look for safe deposit boxes in institutions which wouldn't be closed in a government "Bank Holiday"?
To be honest, I've been too busy reading about 150 web articles a day just to keep up with what's happening in all this. The speed is just amazing. Last stuff I wrote is at One Magazine. I did one followup article after "When Mortgages Buy the Farm", though they're interested in another which compares this to previous credit bubbles and tries to analyse where we are.
Frantically busy at work too. As soon as I get any time...
Thanks for all the interesting posts. Do you have any thoughts for what to do with personal pensions at the moment? I'm not nearing retirement yet BTW.
Also my fixed rate mortgage deal comes to an end next year (bad timing) - any advice? :-)
I moved mine to cash in August last year. What I'm really worried about is what my work pension scheme has done. They were in a hole and betting on overweight equities to get out of it.
Sell the house and pay it off?
Most folks baulk at that though. If I'm right about deflation, interest rates will come down. There's at least some chance that mortgage rates might follow to some extent.
Not really an option to sell at the moment since my house is not finished and I need somewhere to live. I'll hope the mortgage rates drop and I can remortgage to a decent deal.
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