Is there going to be a recession and if so for how long?

I would say almost a certainty.... if only because in times like these all someone has to do is breath the word recession and it becomes self fulfilling... but on a more substantive note because on an individual level people are spending less because of the reduced availability of credit and other costs such as energy, vehicle fuel and food rising without wages rising by the same degree. You can even see it in the TV adverts... M&S now advertising ready meals with wine and a sweet knowing that people have cut back on going out to restaurants, Domino pizzas showing increased sales because people aren't going out anymore. Then theres the house price fall.... and how it stops people moving, which in turn did create demand for new carpets, curtains, kitchens and bathrooms..all of which created employment whose goods are mostly UK manufactured. Look at the house builders...laying off people left right and centre. However, ... for those with capital every recession is an opportunity... and hopefully for me in a year..or maybe 4 years time a second house at much reduced cost.

At the cost of excessive debt to buy a house.

No more boom and bust he said.

The boom/bust cycle is heavily ingrained in anglo-saxon psychology. We (collectively) get irrationally exuberant during the good times, and over-spend. Then we wake up and realise you can't live like that forever. The spending brakes go on, people rediscover the art of saving (or simply paying off some debt) and we enter recession.

If we had more economic common sense recession wouldn't ever happen. But you can't cure the boom/bust cycle by lending more, and more, and more money to people (and governments) which can't really afford it... though gawd knows the banks have tried damned hard this time!

I fail to see how this can be anything other than a very severe recession, given the amount of money which needs to be repaid to get us back on a more stable footing. It'd be nice to be wrong though.

Andrew McP