Re: why so many houses now being sold without onward chain?

i would like to think so. i assume many of these fortunates will be selling up and moving to europe where prices are so much cheaper (only

1.1 % annual increase over the last 30 years ). of course they are only so much cheaper because the English have yet to f*ck up the property markets in those countries as well although apparently they have acheived precisely that in several regions of spain, france and italy already. lets hope the bubble pops here soon to quell those secondary bubbles which are appearing in the markets of our close european neighbours. anyone for a 40 % fall ?

I thought we were in Europe. If not, I want that EU contribution back.

But are no longer so stagnant. The Netherlands topped the price boom over 10 years before moderating to about 2% last year. Prices doubled in Belgium over the same period and are now rising at 8%. Madrid prices boomed 30% last year. French housing is going up by 18%, Italian by 10% and Irish by 15%. Only Germany, Austria and Denmark are static.

The Germans and Scandinavians have been as guilty as anyone of driving up prices in holiday areas, while in Portugal and Spain their own nationals have helped fuelled the booms.

From what point? The one last year when a crash was forecast, or the one in 2002? Anyone who bought then could handle a 40% drop as that's about the percentage prices have risen since the first messages of doom.

what if they had already borrowed and spent much of their 'winnings' (MEW , remortgaging etc ).

I heard on the radio yesterday that house prices increased by 2% last month (I'm not sure if it was only for Scotland, though); bringing average house prices to 150k for the first time.

The housing market seems to be an almost unstoppable rocket. I've been thinking, for a few years now, that surely houses are too expensive and that we're overdue for one almighty crunch. And yet, each year, I have proved wrong. All I can say is that if/when it does happen, it will be the mother of all housing crashes, with horrendous implications for the rest of the economy.

If interest rates, planning restrictions, and CGT on main residences all stay the same, I'd say the boom will continue. Can't help thinking item 2 is quietly changing as we speak and item 3 may change after the next election.

On Sat, 3 Apr 2004 12:28:20 +0100, "stuart noble"

do you mean that after the Barker report on housing they will ease planning restrictions to make new home builds easier ? there is a lot of resentment against these plans I think. in a free market why would anyone resent the increase in supply to meet demand ? but that seems to be what is happenning.

do you think CGT will increase by much ?

I've just committed to the purchase of a house in Normandy where there is a bit of a boom going on fueled, amongst other things and as you correctly pointed out, by the spill over from UK "equity". What I particularly noticed having now been punished by the tax and agency system there, is that the purchase costs are swinging. The stamp-duty which is effectively bound into the solicitor's (notaire's) fee is around the 6% mark and

- by way of illustrating the sharpness of differences there - this percentage actually rises the less you pay for a property rising to a max of around 10% (i think). Additionally the agency charges around 6% also. I gather from others who have managed to get french mortgages that the lending patterns there are far too tightly regulated to allow any buy-to-let crazes taking hold, although even if regulations were significantly relaxed my guess is that an overall buying surcharge of nominally 12% will always have a permanently cooling effect on the market. Of course G Brown can't afford to upset anyone while were relatively close to the next election, but my guess is that stamp duty is a more likely candidate for increases than CGT. If he wants a calmer market - and extra revenue - he will take a lead from the french approach.

NIMBY!

Funny you should mention that!

The current fad for high density brown field developments has led to people on our 1976 housing estate selling off abound 9 metres square of their BY to a builder who, amazingly, has got permission for a pair of 3 story semis. The original site is on a corner so the semis will get access to the road but have no front garden and no front doors just an up & over garage door, they appear to have been built on a 12 foot plot. Just a thought but with our aging population I would have thought there would have greater demand for bungalows rather than houses with 2 flights of stairs.

DG

Walking the streets of any large French, Spanish or Italian city one is struck by the number of flats. In Barcelona for example most people live in 5 or 6 story apartment blocks. The English obsession with detached and semi-detached properties is another reason IMHO for the differences in the UK and continental market.

What if? Suppose the price of my house fell to a fiver? I'd still be in it. It would still be a useful house.

if a house rises in price from 100 K to 200 K and the owner decides to release that equity (100 K) what happens if the house price falls back to 100 K ? I would genuinely like to know.

In Spain and Italy a lot of them were built under dictatorships, which is something F2J should bear in mind when he sites them as examples. If you go to Bilbao you will a great profusion of flags hung on tower blocks sayin "Jardins SI, Torres No!" Gardens , Yes Tower Blocks, No!

One other thing, they have lifts, I've been in a lift in a Lourdes hotel which was just 4' wide by 18 inches front to back and slotted down the well in the middle of the staircase. You became very well aquainted with your fellow traveller.

Bound to be. I wouldn't mind a city centre apartment, but allegedly families with kids found the tower blocks totally unsuitable. Also a lot of my continental colleagues have holiday homes in the mountains etc.

DG

providing he can service the debt and doesn't need to sell - nothing happens.

which differences are you accounting for?

i am not talking about 20-story council tower blocks I am talking about very desirable town houses which are also very affordable. you surely must have seen these in Barcleno, Rome , Paris , Madrid etc

lack of land.

so someone who release 100 K of equity simply gets landed with a mortgage which is 100 K larger ? i assume they have to assure the lender they are able to make the payments ? this surely makes them *much* more vulnerable to interest rate rises ?

absolutely