Running out of stock part way through a week?
- Lack of credit.
- Lack of working capital.
- Supplier has disincentive if you order above a certain level re freight (more common than you think).
- Supplier has limited supply, ie, they buy based on bulk when on offer, and drop when not.
It gets real tedious doing shopping because every few weeks you get "big discounts" like Special K at £2, the subsequent 6-10wks they ramp it back up to £2.89 2.99 3.19 just to subsidise the £2 buyers. Worse for bread, because I suspect they vary the mix, when grain reached record prices a lot of loaves went distinctly crap tasting - improving when prices declined again.
Biggest problem at the moment is trade stores having *nothing*. Everything is ordered in - which makes me think a) they have credit/ working-capital problems b) they have too much stuff sitting dead in warehouses and shop floors and c) they think we have a double dip.
Thus the pickup is merely a "ok, we are not dead" before commercial debt goes bad 2010.
The reasons for the recession were completely insane credit expansion
1995+. The reasons for the recovery are completely insane stimulus expansion creating a bubble now in equities, commodities, real-estate, corporate bonds & treasuries globally; plus no doubt a shed load of bad lending in indo-china. The reasons for the next even bigger collapse will be the former, and it will be bigger too.
Gordon brown ironically has enacted policies indicating he doesn't care, because he does not have to clean up the mess - it would be even more ironic if he did win the next election and inherited it...
We are heading to hyperinflation & declining living standards, masquerading as "to save the environment" when in fact it is to save a lot of idiot financial policy makers getting lynched.