UK facing "worst economic crisis in 60 years"

Sep 01, 2008 63 Replies

Inflation caused, directly or indirectly, by a shortage of oil is unavoidable. This was even predicted by a TV programme more that 10 years ago by comparing the expected rise in demand with shortfall in supply.

House price inflation was caused by Banks being allowed into the housing market - previously dominated by numerous Building Societies. The Societies were basicly only allowed to lend what their customers/owners deposited with them. This restricted the amount lent out for mortgages to roughly what the economy could stand. But the Banks used international credit to finance mortgages, apparently mostly funny money. This allowed them to lend money they didn't have, to many people who could barely afford to repay the debt. A side effect being the loss of most Building Societies.

The long term solution is obvious. Restore the situation to before the Banks became involved in mortgages. Make Building Societies compeditive again and restrict Bank lending for homes using the tax system.

Seems to me that the markets are doing a reasonable job of fixing themselves. People need to save a reasonable deposit to get a loan. The banks won't lend recklessly. Borrowers won't borrow stupidly.

Really, it's all good and they should leave well alone.

FoFP

I remember him. People seem to have two modes - denial and hysteria and not much inbetween. The house price crash was completely forseeable and I cannot understand why some people just denied it. Some are still denying it, saying that property is going to go through the roof - maybe they are trying to prevent panic selling.

Please define a 'crash', which I take to mean a sudden and disproportionate fall in prices/sales. This has certainly happened.

Houses have been getting harder to sell for nearly two years. The crash talk didn't start until the last year.

Well I did, and so did house price crash man.

Or as I say, read all the available information and make your own tips and you can't go far wrong.

Panic selling would be a good thing. Do we want this over in a couple of years or do we want a two-decade slow-motion house price crash like Japan's?

There must be a few people out there who'd like to see something approaching a sound economy again some time before they retire?

FoFP

Not if you are the government and don't want people getting angry because they have 'lost' money or a positive feedback effect from flooding the market with property.

I've not seen one in my life. Maybe a couple of years in the later

1990's (but before Blair came to power)?

I'm totally fed up. 1970's of discontent, 1980's of unemployment, 1990's of negative equity, 2000's of fake credit and resulting problems.

They didn't put it like that.

They said that the Chancellor's views may not be helpful to business in the country.

What they meant is that they wanted him to lie so rich people would stay rich.

what is 'disproportionate'? what is 'sudden'?

would you describe the rises over several years as 'disproportionate' or 'sudden'?

not if you 'suddenly' dropped your price by 10%...instead of waiting and hoping...

and by the time you ran out of hope...adjusting the price down by 10%.......instead of 20%....and waiting and hoping some more... etc...

talk...is talk... monkeys gabble...and sheep bleat....it is in their nature

markets go up...and then markets go down...and then they go up again... i can now 'predict' that house prices will rise....

if i do it long enough i'll be correct....

the clown is rapidly devaluing the currency....declining currency value (rising prices) will meet declining house prices...in due course those lines will cross....

the herds run hither and thither...driven by fear and greed...

oh yes you can.... every gambler believes they have a foolproof system...

regards

It isn't. How many people will now not spend what they were going to spend had he kept his trap shut?

1) I want evidence that the '60 years' thing is true so I can tell if he is lying 2) Not just rich people, but millions of small businesses like mine that have sprung up over the past 10 years due to hidden unemployment. Most businesses in Britain are small, and are therefore more sensitive to spendind changes than big businesses that can go to banks for massive overdrafts or sell some assets to stay liquidated.

I haven't yet signed the contract for my new shop - I might not bother now.

and others are trying to promote 'panic' selling.... it depends which side of which fence their interests lie....

regards

you are being farmed....only when you realise that can you break out of the pasture...if you actually prefer that to enjoying the 'security' of the farmer's provisions and altruism...

regards

I wish I knew how.

Maybe for once they really are spinning it wrongly. They should just get up and say "We said we'd help first time buyers and there is no better help than cheaper properties and a banking system that makes only prudential loans. Things are headed that way and so we'll leave well alone."

Yeah well. I've heard the 60's were good. The cycle should take us back there in 30 years or so...

FoFP

so what?

you won't be able to tell until the direction of markets change again. ie, you'll be able to tell in hindsight...as always....

it is vital to build and keep reserves... the very thing the clown has failed to do....

increasingly it looks like a real fall in the standard of living....in the uk how do you measure your standard of living? cheaper bling? more expensive food? cheaper houses? more free time?

fixed pensions are falling rapidly...exactly as has been planned because socialist government 'promises' are unsustainable....

what does luvvy darling mean? it's mostly bullshit and waffle....

keep your head while all around are losing their's

regards

It's certainly no time to go into retailing, the rows of empty shops in every town in the UK should have told you that.

I thought you were off to Bulgaria, what ever happened to that idea?

They should, but I guess they don't want an army of the repossessed voting Tory...

I'll be dead by then. Maybe there is some hope for my kids.

there are many ways....lower your outgoings and increase your income sell your children! or send them out to pick the crops.... eat scraps....

you survived the last downturn.... what is happening to bulgaria?

regards...

news: snipped-for-privacy@i76g2000hsf.googlegroups.com...

Because sadly, the wellbeing of our economy depends on people spending. Europe seems better placed in that regard, even if their growth was a lot slower than ours in the past. They just don't spend at the rate of knots that we do, and so they will not suffer the same damage that we will.

He is stating it as fact as far as I can tell.

As a frugal person, how I measure mine is, can I pay my subsistence bills? The answer to that is now no. I am having my gas disconnected and buying thick quilts. I never thought it would come to that (again).

Means nothing to me - I have never been able to have a pension.

I've kept my head - it just feels as if it is full of lead.

And yet when I rang agents last week they told me they were nearly all under offer in our town. I don't know what is going on.

Erosion of the £ means I can't buy a house big enough - I don't have enough savings, not to buy big, or buy small and extend. It's not ruled out - just shelved. The idea of the shop was to expand a little and increase the Bulgaria fund.

Can't. Given that I was brought up by war people and a homeowner by the age of 18, I've never spent more than I needed to. I don't buy baubles.

lol

That would probably work.

What crops? Working is not allowed under the age of 16 in this country.

2 hours a day at age 14 as long as you don't start before 7am, IIRC.

Already do.

I have never had an upturn Abelard. I started out in poverty, and still am. I am used to it - just fed up that I can't break out of it.

Please see my reply to William Black.

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