According to my model below, which bases future price movements of a stock based on today's an option's TRUE COST, it's volume, the weighted price of XOM should be:
$72.54267884 on/around January 2008.Today, the price is $71.32.
CALL OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jan 18, 2008 XOM= 71.32 Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int True Cost of Options Market Cap of Options Weighted Price Contribution
35 WXOAG.X 37.3 0 36.5 36.8 19 5,023 -1 18.62 0.312483518
40 WXOAH.X 31.4 0 31.8 32.1 55 3,240 0 4.4 0.084390209
45 WXOAI.X 26.8 0 27.2 27.3 1 2,675 0 0.48 0.01035698
50 WXOAJ.X 23.8 0 22.6 22.8 1 5,047 -2 2.48 0.059456738
55 WXOAK.X 18.5 Up 0.50 18.2 18.4 1 8,289 -2 2.18 0.05749083
60 WXOAL.X 14.4 Down 0.60 14.1 14.3 22 7,352 -3 67.76 1.949413824
65 WXOAM.X 11 Down 0.40 10.4 10.6 59 13,206 -5 276.12 8.605787442
68 WXOAU.X 9.7 0 8.8 8.9 11 1,467 -6 64.68 2.093404617
70 WXOAN.X 7.5 Down 0.30 7.2 7.4 11 36,975 -6 67.98 2.281700271
73 WXOAX.X 6.1 Down 0.40 5.9 6.1 144 5,370 -6 878.4 30.53582988
75 WXOAO.X 4.8 Down 0.30 4.8 4.9 4 32,661 -5 19.2 0.690465345
80 WXOAP.X 3 Down 0.10 2.9 3 52 53,700 -3 156 5.984032989
85 WXOAQ.X 1.85 Up 0.05 1.65 1.75 73 13,399 -2 135.05 5.504183549
90 WXOAR.X 0.9 Down 0.10 0.9 1 103 4,285 -1 92.7 4.000383592
95 WXOAS.X 0.5 Down 0.05 0.45 0.55 599 4,240 -1 299.5 13.64268418 2085.55 75.81206396
PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jan 18, 2008 Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int True Cost Market Cap of Costs Weighted Price Contributions
35 WXOMG.X 0.05 0 N/A 0.05 5 4,893 -0.05 0.25 0.002489331
40 WXOMH.X 0.05 0 0.05 0.2 1 8,925 -0.05 0.05 0.00056899
45 WXOMI.X 0.35 0 0.15 0.2 717 7,088 -0.35 250.95 3.212731152
50 WXOMJ.X 0.35 0 0.35 0.4 530 27,146 -0.35 185.5 2.638691323
55 WXOMK.X 0.75 Down 0.05 0.75 0.85 4 31,231 -0.75 3 0.046941679
60 WXOML.X 1.45 Down 0.05 1.45 1.5 28 22,063 -1.45 40.6 0.693029872
65 WXOMM.X 2.45 0 2.55 2.7 1 35,287 -2.45 2.45 0.045305832
68 WXOMU.X 3 0 3.3 3.5 11 8,656 -3 33 0.63371266
70 WXOMN.X 4 Down 0.30 4.2 4.5 55 45,782 -4 220 4.381223329
73 WXOMX.X 5.3 Down 0.01 5.3 5.6 156 8,644 -4 642.72 13.25667141
75 WXOMO.X 6.5 Down 0.10 6.7 6.9 750 21,677 -3 2115 45.12802276
80 WXOMP.X 9.8 Down 0.20 9.9 10.1 3 8,954 -1 3.36 0.076472262
85 WXOMQ.X 13 0 13.8 14 7 2,015 1 -4.76 -0.115106686
90 WXOMR.X 19.2 0 18.6 18.8 22 19 -1 11.44 0.292916074
95 WXOMS.X 24.2 0 23.6 23.8 22 2 -1 11.44 0.309189189 3515 70.60285917 72.54267884