Test portfolio from Dec. 19th, 2006 - Dec. 21st, 2007 - I'm humbled!

Happy Holidays Friends,

About one year ago from today, on Tuesday, December 19th, 2006, I created a test portfolio compromised of 10 stocks from different sectors. Based on my analysis, which I'll share with you later on, these 10 stocks were very under-valued. I bought a total of ~$10,000 of each of the 10 different stocks for a total of about $100,000.

I did a multi-variage analysis on 2200 or so stocks, and based on my regression analysis, I selected about 50 under-valued stocks. I then checked my 50 stocks with what analysts had to say about it. The 10 stocks that I chose from my initial screen of 50 stocks all had favorable ratings by analysts.

However, and this is a very humbling experience, my portfolio severely under-performed the S&P 500. Two of the 10 different stocks have actually become 'Not Active', probably due to being bought out or delisted.

When you eliminate the 2 stocks that have become inactive, my initial purchase for this "Model Portfolio" is about $80,000. Today, these 8 stocks are only valued at about $65,300.

The actual values are (included dividends, stock splits, etc.): Initial value: $79,906.80 Current value: $65,284.57

This represents a -18.3% decrease in value, and the S&P 500 increased by 2.4% (not including reinvested dividends).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 19 Dec 2006 12:46:00 -0800 Subject: Test portfolio

Here are 10 stocks that I'm going to start tracking. My initial investment was $99,901.79 on Tuesday, December 19th. Today, the S&P

500 is 1426.11.

My basis for selecting these 10 stocks are the following:

  1. I did my models, and these stocks are quite under-valued using my statistical criterias.
  2. I cross-checked with what analysts on finance.yahoo.com had to say.

Symbol Cost Basis Shares Bought Value of Shares ACTS 8.57 1166 $9,992.62 BONT 35.18 284 $9,991.12 GNCMA 15.72 636 $9,997.92 HOFF 17.11 584 $9,992.24 PETD 43.4 230 $9,982.00 PHH 28.78 347 $9,986.66 PLSB 23.73 421 $9,990.33 RSCR 18.9 529 $9,998.10 WIRE 22 454 $9,988.00 WLSC 18.8 531 $9,982.80

TOTAL: $99,901.79

Only time will tell if my method will outperform the S&P 500 or not. Let's check periodically.

Reply to
draccarlawpet
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Hopefully the stock market will evaporate and people will be forced to earn honest livings.

Reply to
Don Stockbauer

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One of the problems with undervalued stocks is they become more undervalued.

704set
Reply to
704set

Would you like to enter your ten stocks into the 2008 Stock Picking Game? Just drop me an email with your ten stock. The email is:

snipped-for-privacy@hotmail.com

Reply to
lubow

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