Closest-to-cash in a shares ISA?

- A
- Andy Pandy
  
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posted
15 years ago

Sat, Mar 28, 2009 12:00 PM

Wow, really?

Yeah. I won a 1 in 3,000 bet then didn't I? I'm not going over this bullshit with you again, refer to the archives if you're that bored.

We've done it already. There's no point repeating a previous discussion unless there's something new to discuss.

Not in the short term, but they can use historical averages. Eg they can say that if you drip-feed money into shares over 10 years, then leave them for another 10 years, you'll probably do better than someone who puts money into a deposit account. That's it.

No I don't. I just think some are better at it than others. And the performance of the funds I've invested in proves that. You carry on believing it was pure chance.

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- Norman Wells
  
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posted
15 years ago

Sat, Mar 28, 2009 3:27 PM

So, where is the FTSE 100 index going to be in 10 years' time? Higher than now? Higher than in December 1999? Or lower?

What 'historical average' do you take? All of this century which after all is a pretty long-term 9 and a bit years? Or further back than that? If so, why? How exactly does past performance inform future performance?

Well of course they are. It's called a normal distribution about the mean. But you get those by chance as well as by skill. The difficulty is telling them apart.

Sorry, it doesn't prove that at all. You could just have been lucky.

Can you prove otherwise?

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- Andy Pandy
  
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posted
15 years ago

Sat, Mar 28, 2009 8:22 PM

You really are obsessed with that particular date, aren't you? Hint - the reason for drip-feeding over 10 years is to *avoid* any particular peak while investing.

The FTSE in 10 years time is likely to be higher than its average value over the last 10 years (and that's what matters if you're drip-feeding).

You take the average over the 10 years you drip-fed, obviously. Then wait at least another 10. Not that 100% guarantees anything of course.

Refer to our previous discussion when *you* explained how 75% (or whatever) of managed funds didn't beat the index in the past informed future performance of such funds.

I have.

Yeah, I could have won a 1 in 3,000 bet (or something like that, I worked it out in the other thread).

See above. I either won a 1 in 3000 bet or I was really lucky. That's enough to satisfy myself it wasn't chance. I really couldn't give a toss if it doesn't satify you.