If this speed keeps up, yeah, it could be about that.
It jangles a little though. What seemed to drag it all out in Japan was the authorities' insistence on keeping the banks from the consequences of their actions. The US and UK can hardly be said to have been laissez faire in that regard so far. There must be some other crucial wrinkle that I've missed.
I've had it pegged at 50% through 90% down for some time and that fits pretty closely with your number.
I just pad the mattress out with marijuana. It'll be a more effective trade than gold in the aftermath ;-)
FoFP