depression

Any metals, I would have thought; we're running out of them, just like oil.

In message , bof writes

Anything that is in short supply and in demand will sustain its price and if demand outstrips supply then the price will rise. However if you look closer to home I would suggest that you think about what it is that people will still need and what they can cut back on. Those items that are not essentials may see reduced spending as things get tighter, luxuries almost certainly will be cut back on quite quickly in many cases.

Initially people may not holiday abroad but may holiday at home, if money gets tight they will not dine out but may still buy little extras to dine at home etc. There are some things that we all need such as food, water, shelter, heat just think about where you will still spend and of course ultimately death is inevitable so funeral parlours will continue to do business as well.

Still it will all be over in a few years and the next cycle will have begun so start planning for the boom.

Commodities generally, although you're a bit late. That and cash.

Bloke at work reckons that once the Chinese find what they're looking for in Africa, the demand will tumble.

On Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:19:14 +0100, bof wrote the following to uk.misc:

Copper seems popular, but make sure it's switched off first:

A fund run by somebody who knows what they are doing. The sharp investors make more money as the stock market falls than they do when it's rising.

Gold has been working quite well for me.

FoFP

Home entertainment systems get a lot of bang for the buck for those who will stay in to avoid spending money on petrol and aumusement. Camping is a cheap way to holiday. Cheaper outlets such as Aldi and Lidl look like good bets (Woolworth made it big in the last bust). Folks will make-do and mend - that could be good for DIY stores and lessons in dressmaking and other skills. People will start to rely more on family, friends and neighbours to get through problems. Community entertainments and projects will probably increase. When reality is grim, people want escape. Romance, westerns, SF and Fantasy will become more popular. Politically, small "c" conservatism will make a return as folks seek safety in tradition.

The last bust started in 1929. Arguably it was 1948 before the new boom started. I'm unconvinced there's a hurry.

FoFP

Whoah - voice from the past...

Hey, I've been here all along...

FoFP

In message , M Holmes writes

I don't expect it to last quite that long, however if he is only just starting to think about what to do if there is a recession then a nudge in the direction of forward planning wouldn't be amiss.

uk.finance?

In message , Eric Jarvis writes

Trouble is you only know who knew what the were doing once the furore is over, even then they might not have known what they were doing, just been lucky with the runes.

See "Fooled By Randomness", by NY city mathematical trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

I did, but I admit things are happening much faster than I'd forseen.

Big day today possibly. Fannie and Freddie shares are crashing. Fed says "No bailout!". Probable bear raid (a la Bear Stearns) going on with the Plunge Protection Team playing defence.

If they go down, we're in Phase Two of the credit collapse. The US mortgage markets will be down by 95% and the world credit system will really be starved of cash. It'll make what's gone before look like a trip to Heaven.

On the plus side: it'll be another item ticked off my soothsaying sheet, with only a 50%-90% fall in house prices left to go...

It's never too late to start stocking ammo...

FoFP

Yup, though posting rather less. I've been having fun on housepricecrash and the Edinbugh Evening news feedback pages.

Will sir be changing a New Alexandria?

FoFP

In message , August West writes

OK, ta, just ordered it

I would suggest five years if I was looking at timing the market but then again we all know dangerous that can be.

If I was going to put a number on it I'd expect that house prices could go to 35% of recent highs.

But don't you find that the ceiling creaks with all that Gold Bullion stuffed in the mattress and it is now where near as comfortable to sleep on :-)

Whoosh?