According to various reports, the failure of England's footballers to qualify for next year's Euro 2008 finales may cost the economy up to GBP 2bn. Here's one report which mentions that figure:
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Now, the claim is that this is what will be the cost to businesses that make a lot of their profits on the back of sport, such as bookmakers, pubs, sportswear retailers and manufacturers of large-screen TVs. Whether the figure of 2bn is reasonable or not, it's certainly likely to be true that these market sectors will suffer. But, unless I'm missing something really obvious here, I don't see how it's likely to affect the economy as a whole. People will still have the same amount of money to spend, they'll just spend it on different things. It's quite possible that other leisure industries are looking forward to a bumper summer in 2008 - without football keeping them in front of their TVs, people are likely to go out more or buy things that have a different focus - restaurants, for example, are likely to do better, and it's probably also good news for music and games retailers. So it seems to me that claims of damage to the economy as a whole are just special pleading by groups who have the most to lose.
Am I right, or can anyone enlighten me as to what I've missed here?
Mark