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  3. I SAID HOUSE PRICES WOULD START FALLING IN Q4 2004 BACK IN OCT 2003 - I WAS RIGHT

I SAID HOUSE PRICES WOULD START FALLING IN Q4 2004 BACK IN OCT 2003 - I WAS RIGHT

What I posted in Oct 2003 (spelling is a bit dodgy as i was well drunk. but you get the jist)

groups.google.com/groups?q=sam1967+q1&hl=en&lr=&selm=kbr1qvsua1svlf603i6is810qu4223micj%404ax.com&rnum=4

excellent mneoy program on house prieces last night. clearly a big fall is on the cards and much much pain. people never learn. there is a good book called "a brief history of fincanial euphoria" by j k galbraith which pretty much explains how it all works. it isnt difficult to understand. question i have is what is the bset way to mkae mneoy when hsoue pcries srtat falling (q4 2004, q1 2005). byuing a re possessed porperty seems a bit sslimy. ive heard you can do spaerd btting on the prices falling but that is also sodrid. surely there must be an honest way to mkea mnoey when house pceris fall ? soup kitchen ?

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AND The latest woes of the housing market

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House prices go into reverse as rate rises take their toll By Julia Kollewe

29 October 2004

House prices posted their first monthly drop in three years in October, Nationwide said yesterday. But the building society went on to say it felt a sustained period of falling prices seemed unlikely while the jobs market remained strong.

The price of an average house slid 0.4 per cent from September to £152,159. Annual growth slowed sharply to 15.3 per cent from 17.8 per cent. Nationwide said weak growth in take-home pay, rising interest rates and stretched affordability were acting as a drag on the housing market. There is also less demand from buy-to-let investors, perhaps discouraged by low rental yields and the prospect of limited future capital growth.

Reply to
sam1967
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So, what is there to learn? The only way 'to learn' is ask a lower price. No one is going to do that in a rising market, as the house they want to buy will be going up as well, and they wouldn't be able to buy it unless they ask an appropriately high price. Ordinary punters have little or no control over supply and demand. They have to pay the asking price or as near as dammit, until FTBs are priced out of the market, which quickly stagnates, and then houses become slightly more affordable again. This is exactly what's happening right now.

MM

Reply to
MM

wrote

Reply to
Tim

In message , snipped-for-privacy@hetnet.nl writes

Even more miraculous is that you made this prediction after a skinful

The fact is that it doesnt take a rocket scientist to repeatedly post that prices will fall, to be right eventually.

The reason they have fallen, (in some areas), is the 30% increase in the base rate, which is controlled by the MPC, (??), and it was purely luck rather than judgement that your prediction coincided with their efforts.

I would imagine that if you increase the price of anything by 30%, it will have a dramatic effect on sales - unless it is price inelastic, (IIRC from my economics stuff).

Reply to
Richard Faulkner

It's all contained this this technology known as "books". They're sold in multiple outlets.

FoFP

Reply to
M Holmes

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