LOOKS LIKE I WAS RIGHT ABOUT HOUSE PRICES

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Groan. EVIDENCE??

wake up and smell the roses dear boy.

Ashley Seager Saturday September 25, 2004 The Guardian

House prices fell for the third month running and by the fastest pace on record, property research group Hometrack said yesterday.

Hometrack said prices fell a non-seasonally adjusted 0.3% in the month to mid-September, following 0.1% falls in the previous two months.

The latest figure is the largest since the survey began in early 2001.

Hometrack said there had been a sharp increase in the excess of supply, and the number of buyers registered with estate agents was down 5%.

Price falls were recorded in all but five of 57 counties in England and Wales, and were sharpest in London at between 0.8% and 1%.

"The housing boom is now well and truly over," said John Wriglesworth, Hometrack's housing economist. "Rising interest rates and reducing consumer confidence in the future health of the housing market have taken their toll for the third month running."

What's interesting is that the question of whether it's a housing bubble or credit bubble is still open. What's more, Fannie Mae is now being investigated for accounting problems, and the Chinese may be forced to raise interest rates, so the central forces in the credit bubble are also seeing problems. Coincidence?

FoFP

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Hahahaha! "Records" only go back 3.5 years?

BTW - where does it say "staying down for at least 5 years"?

the nationwide figures for september are due out very soon and they go back 30 years or more.

i said 5 years or more. it is my opinion and i am happy to be proved wrong.

if it was/is a credit bubble what would you expect to see as fallout ?

Problems with assets bought primarily with credit (very large falls in price). Difficulties for the lenders leading to lack of future loans available. In the end, repudiation and default on debt and finally debt aversion as people en masse refuse to get involved in taking on debt again. It'd look like a larger version of a house price crash, but with the result that lending on housing wouldn't recover for at least a generation.

FoFP

You seem to forget the last 3 months house price falls are predominantly London and the falls are significantly less than the previous corresponding increases - hardly spells doom and gloom imho!!

All I do is look whats happening around me...........a neighbour sold his house 11 weeks ago for 287k, last week my next door neighbour sold his within 3 days of going on the market for 298k .............everything looks fine from where I'm sitting!

im seeing house prices nosediving where i am . massive reductions being offered for the first time in many many years. i think we can all be certain if house prices fall every month for the next 4 or 5.

I am sure Captain Edward Smith thought the outlook was rosy too. :)

Are but he had nothing to compare this view with :)

Oh I doubt it, you didnt sound very happy last time you pointed to a report saying they were falling (which actually mentioned they had risen). BTW if there is a report next week which says they have risen will you post that?

if the nationwide report announces they have risen i will post it and say i got it wrong. but it wont. you know it wont.

Here (SE England, not London), they seem to be moving sideways. I would say the market is about to turn, but not quite yet. There may be one final upwards push before the crash.

Well, everything looks very far from fine where I'm sitting! My house has been on the market (in Bucks) for five months with three different agents. I have had numerous viewings. The price has been reduced three times. No one can buy, as they have something to sell first, and they can't get any first-time buyer to risk it! This is not just my house. Several others in the village are hanging around for ages - months, in fact. My RightMove shortlist has properties on it going back to January!

Here, 30 minutes by train from London, houses - any houses - were selling within a week *as a matter of course* 18 months ago. Now you can't give 'em away! Gee, thanks, Mervyn (King)!

MM

I have no idea whether it will go up down or sideways, though people have been talking about a house price crash for (literally) years, so they are likely to be right eventually. Though somehow how a fall of 0.1% doesn't seem to quite fit into the 'crash' category!

If you are moving upmarket you should find it in your favour, (lets say) 10% off the next house up the chain above yours is a gain compared to 10% off yours. Sounds like your potential buyers arent dropping their prices to match even if they will benefit because yours has fallen.

Yeh? Still rocketing upwards on both my houses thanks for asking old boy. One has appreciated by 300% in two years.

Thanks to Channel 4.

It isn't MKs fault. Long term, according to the Barker report, it's due to the lack of suitable housing, short term to the buyers that are prepared to pay such high prices.

Daytona