LOOKS LIKE I WAS RIGHT ABOUT HOUSE PRICES

That's all I'm interested in!!!

Not sure why I should be worried about house prices falling in London when house prices here are still going up???? In fact it's about time they fell

I think the thread is about UK trend rather than your particular neighbourhood. (which part of the country are you in?)

He reads The Express - do you need any more evidence?

Aris

Because the house price trends tend to start in London, and fan out to the rest of the country.

Just in case you missed it :-)

UK house prices clocked up a second month of "subdued growth" in September, rising by 0.2% from August, the Nationwide building society has said.

In message , Tumbleweed writes

2 swallows dont make a summer

Whilst the market must stop rising at some point, I have felt that this had happened on around 2/3 occasions per year since 2001. It is usually in January and September, after the typically slow periods just before and after Xmas, and just after the summer holidays.

I think a lot will depend on interest rates. I think they have risen by

1% from 3.75% to 4.75%, which is 27%, and mortgages have probably risen from around 5% to 6% which is 20%.

These are quite dramatic increases, impacting directly on disposable income, and they seem to be having the desired effect. I just hope that the BoE Committee recognise the effect, and dont increase rates further

- It is in their hands.

As a matter of interest, the story I saw a few times, on various news programmes last night, was of a property developer who bought a house a few months ago, decorated it, and was concerned that it had not sold in a month.

What we do not know is when he bought it, how much he paid for it, and how much he is asking for it. I wouldn't be surprised if he bought it in May for say, £200K, spent around £5K to £10K on it, and is now asking £275K .

The same goes for all the houses which are currently not selling - I would guess if they all set their asking price at whatever was right in April/may of this year, they would sell quite well.

In my patch a typical terrace which was £100K in October/November last year, was £130K in February/March, and is now £140K, (these are actual selling prices!). However, this typical terrace currently seems to have an asking price of £150K.

WOW - that 5 years went darn quick!!!

Fantasy. World interest rates are in the hands of bondholders. Central banks can try to sway these over the short term, but in the long term thay have to fall into line. Right now, due to the deflationary effects that Greenspan/Bernanke/Brown et al were worried about, bondholders globally are sanguine about inflation risks, abetted by a Chinese government's refusal to use interest rates to halt its own credit bubble, and determination to buy up the US Fed's printed money in order to hold down the Renminbi and exprt its way out of its political problems.

This scenario has powered low global interest rates and the subsequent property bubbles in the richer countries for almost a decade.

The threats to this now of course are:

A) that oil price hikes tend to bring inflation while cramping economic growth - something that will tend to make bondholders want higher interest rates to compensate for the added risk;

B) That the Chinese government won't be able to halt a property/credit bubble by government fiat, and will in the end have to raise rates, or risk a hard landing (read Japanese style credit crunch).

C) That the double US deficits that are the flipside of the Chinese behaviour will lead to a run on the Dollar and a 1987 style stocks crash.

D) That the nerve centre of the US driven credit bubble, Fannie Mae, will run into deep shit. Well, I guess now I mean more deep shit than it's allready in.

FoFP

dont kid yourself. the trend is down for a while to come. youll see.

Like shares, you've only lost money if you sell at a loss, until then, who gives one?

The trend most certainly is *not* down at the moment. It may become so at some point, but as the reports quite clearly indicate, the trend is flat or slightly upward. It was you, wasn't it who stated words to the effect that 'there is no way then next nationwide report will show a house price rise". You are the one kidding yourself with your crystal ball gazing.

What about the effect of a Bush second term? Or a Kerry first one?

MM

So how does that equate with the nationwide report saying that house prices rose over the past 2 months? BTW, have no wish to talk up the market, just interested to see people coming on here for the past2 - 3 years with predictions of crashes which they appear to have desperate need to see come true. makes no odds to me Im not selling or buying.

Yes, it is. The market is dead. Every single estate agent I talk to (except my own, of course!), every neighbour, everybody I hear commenting about the dire situation with NO first-time buyers coming into the market, is saying it because it is true. You may wish to "talk up" the market, but it has disappeared right now. And in the run-up to Christmas, who is going to be buying houses anyway?

MM

For crying out loud. Who listens to reports from those with a vested interest?

FoFP

"M Holmes" wrote

Who makes reports without a vested interest?

Firstly housing is a regional issue, just because in your area everyone is pessimistic does not mean your region represents the country as a whole.

I regularly read the news and I do not yet form the opinion that it is a dire situation. Yes you have extremist views where some say it will crash while others say it will continue forever :). From all the information I have read over the last few months, the general view is that house prices will grow but with growth much lower. I don't doubt that a lot of these reports people have a vested interest so they will put their own spin on it but I don't think we can yet call the top. Tops are called well after the event, I hardly think a couple months of reduced growth represents a change of market direction, we had reduced growth the previous year.

I have been astonished at the price increases of the last few years and have often said like everyone else that they can't go any higher, but remarkably they do. I wish for a crash so I can trade up, infact I hope for a really good crash where I can pick up an house for a tenner, I might buy two then, but this is hardly likely to happen.

I hope you have called the top and the trend is down, but you really are guessing, or maybe even hoping.

Tell me this is the first time you have called this market top.

Under that philosophy you would ignore all property market reports, as every one comes from a 'vested interest'.

It's sad, however, that people think groups like the Nationwide would twist evidence to suit some vague proposition that they *want* it to appear the market is rising. They have said often enough that prices have gone too high and would like to see some of the 'irrational exuberance' dispelled.

It's like constant sneers that agents are 'talking up the market'. If prices soar, fewer people can buy. Agents and lenders make their money from the number of loans and sales. They want turnover, not soaring prices.

In message , news writes

Exactly!!! If agents were truly able to talk up a market, markets would never fall.

Always the scapecoat?