Lets Crash the Housing Market..First Time Buyers.

I've seen your other post - I'll stick to Le Monde and my usual sources if that's ok...

Eh? House-buying idyll? What in hell's name is that? You're becoming confused.

In message , curiosity writes

You've lost me now! - is this the 5 minute argument, or the full half hour??

Nowhere did I suggest that. Nor would I. What you borrow is between you and your lender.

My point of course is that at the start of this, and every, credit cycle, if you couldn't pay for it, you couldn't afford it. As the cycle proceeds, what you can afford becomes less related to what money you have than what money you can borrow. Which is of course how we got wher we are.

FoFP

the "house buying idyll", as described by you, is France, where apparently prices are stable (' a swell as opposed to a tsunami'), and where rules on mortgage multiples and stamp duty apparently mean there are no 'spiv' BTL people .....though according to someone else who you didnt disagree with, 50% of French owners are spivs*.

Or are you retracting your claims about how good France is for buying houses?

Probably not. The dislike probably comes from a shared history of credit cycles in each of which the appearance of speculators inevitably preceded what were seen as socially hard times or even disasters.

The scale of each cycle is dependent on access to credit which is itself dependent on trust between lender and borrower. The protestant nations have more of a history of trusting the stranger on the basis of "My word is my biond" than the catholic countries with a more conservative history of keeping lending to within the family, religion, or guild.

It didn't stop the Mississippi Bubble in France of course, though note that the original idea came from the Scot who ran the scheme. Still, as we've noted, half of the French rent and there's clearly no mania for property as status there. Perhaps this indicates that they've collectively learned something.

FoFP

Richard Faulkner wrote: flats, then there are a lot of people who own property to let.

Let me reassure you that before WWII, when landlords were able to evict tenants if they were a day late with the rent, they were considered evil.

I'm already here (Grenoble region) and in the last 3 years around here prices have gone up 20-30%. Even with the mortgage multiples tied down people still seem to find money from somewhere. This increase has little to do with Brits or tourists.

D.

There are other kinds of sillinesses in France, for example declaring a lower purchase price in the contract to save on taxes, and paying the difference between the nominal price and the real price in cash while the notaire discreetly turns away.

Hello D, well I did only say there was 'probably' a UK effect. A friend has recently bought in Bergerac where this effect is profound. Some of the supermarkets there now show prices in english with French subtitles and your most unlikely to hear a French voice in the estate agents around Eymet and Duras. UK has variably infiltrated across France and in many place they haven't (yet?) arrived. I apologise for us!

(Oh!!, the tedium....) I don't say all landlords are spivs. I didn't and don't described French landlords (45%) as spivs. My 'spivs' are the recent recruits to the UK BTL phenomena who generally seem thicker than donkey scat and who while risking their own fortunes by bidding prices precariously upwards have perturbed their local property market for those ordinary folk who want to buy a single house to live in.

'good for buying'? Your hallucinating again... what are you taking? I supplied just one reason (there are many - some embedded into the French psyche even) why I believe the French market has until now been relatively calm. For a Brit who wants to buy and see prices skyrocket

- and it seems most of them have got used to that - this could be a BAD thing. Do you see?

I bought a beautiful 16C house for the price of a 2 bed shoe-box in Clapham and I don't give a shit about its price in the market today so it was good for me but at no point did I talk about the business of buying being 'good' or qualify it at all.

I'm sure you wouldn't mourn my passing but I have to say that dealing with your silly posts is in danger of costing me the will to live. I may have to ignore you for a bit.

No that's no longer true, many European countries have got round this one very simply - France and Portugal I know for a fact. I'll explain.

When the contract price is declared it has to be entered into the contract ( Compromis de Vente). This is then passed to the notaire who amongst his first duties will be to inform the Marie of the details of sale. The Marie has first right of refusal AT THIS PRICE!! If it appears suspiciously low and the council has the funds it will duly pay out to the vendor who has absolutely no choice but to accept the low 'declared' value and the council has a bargain. The buyer of course gets his deposit back - the vendor is stuffed. This happened to a neighbouring plot to my own house. It now belongs to the council.

If the French market is calm and low prices then surely its good for buying in? Thats what you want isnt it, a stable market priced as you prefer?

Individual BTL's dont bid up the price (as you describe), its the effect of a large number of them. But you cant say that someone becomes a Spiv simply because of the effects of what other people do.....each individual BTL is blameless, they are buying at the market rate. So according to your reasoning, if lots of French people do BTL (and you say its 45%, much higher than the UK, then that makes them spivs as well, since there are more of them than in the UK!

There must be some other reason which is nothing at all to do with BTL why house prices are higher and rose more in the UK.

"Jim Ley" wrote

Both are flats so major maintenance is covered via the service charge and lesser maintenance via their deposit, if excessive.

I repaint whenever a tenant leaves - if the place is spruce it attracts a better class of tenant and makes it more difficult for any so inclined to argue the toss over general condition.

Not really. I sold up in Hertfordshire after a 35% increase in 2 years (2002) which has now gone quite flat since. This seems comparable, especially when wages in France have remained relatively flat (0-3% increases over this time).

D.

No you didnt - I stand corrected! I guess I was reading between the lines, and there was nothing there

Weedy,

I am very much above slandering individuals on any group, and my opinions are very abstract. I however, do believe that you are mentally ill. I suggest you get councilling, it can be cured.

We generally ignore idiots in public (and on the web). It seems that you do not.

You just don't get it. As long as house prices are rising BTL investors will buy into it. As soon as they stop rising, BLTs will either panic and sell out or ride it through. Most BLTs (individuals or companies) will probably ride it through.

House prices have just stopped rising. Consider a single house being a single share in a large organisation who has the monopoly over its market and there are no other contenders. Like any organisation, we buy in when its rising, but not geneally at any other time.

If you think that BLTs will continue to buy into a stagnant market, then you are wrong.

There are more fundamental issues here too. I personally believe that the government should levvy higher taxes (in whatever shape it is) on anyone who has more than a single property. But then again, I'm more a socialist (

but you told us at the very start of this thread (it was it you that did the emotive 'camp A and camp B analysis wasnt it?) that they have been priced out and aren't buying..."their hopes were cruelly dashed" etc.......so why do they need to be told not to?

The problem Tumbleweed is I don't have time to deal with too much of the following from you:-

"Or are you retracting your claims about how good France is for buying houses?"

You have a penchant for getting me to justify or retract claims in words you yourself have put in my mouth.

Do you promise to reform?