Right time to buy?

Same as always. Excess of demand over supply.

Doesn't this suggest as soon as these investors see a peak, they should start realising these profits by selling up? If the majority of the increased BTL market suddenly went up for sale what sort of increase would that have over the current supply - 10% 100% 200% ?

Jim.

Well as first-time buyers drop out of the market tho only thing holding up the lower rungs on the ladder is the buy to let demand. And a few wrinklies downsizing.

Interestingly there was a news item on channel 4 news tonight where someone (really sorry, I don't remember who he was or who he was representing) forecasted that the house prices will rise by around 10% this year and then another 8% next year, when a slow-down will begin. That leaves us with 18 months where prices will inevitably rise - which fits in with the idea that there could be a slow-down or crash after a general election.

Indeed.

It would probably have an immense effect, because at any time the number of properties on the market represent a very small fraction of the overall housing stock. The BTL stock is also fairly small, but if all of it were suddenly to come up for sale it would seriously skew the market. However, not that many of them are available to come on the market "suddenly" because they will be in the middle of extant tenancy agreements.

So "suddenly" could mean up to a year. That ought to have a strongly depressing effect on prices, but once they all sell, we're back to square 1, and with no (or far fewer) properties available for renting, the demand for buying should become even more acute and prices will shoot up again.

That suggests we're close to the edge though, another 50 basis points is likely by the end of the year and by your figures that would pretty much be the limit.

The limit for what? Sure, it means it will be a bad idea to go into BTL at 80%. But if you're already in it, at a much lower loan ratio (because you got in years ago at 80% and values have risen), it's not yet enough reason to pull out.

Hi Stephen - I missed your posts - where've you been ?

Daytona