The Ladder, The Rung, and the Crowley

Jan 22, 2006 27 Replies

A week or so ago Crowley posted that the bottom rung of the housing ladder had been removed because first time buyers had dropped to 7% (of what, I forget :-) and therefore the entire housing market and following that, no doubt, civilisation as we know it, would collapse.



I said that no worries, there were many other sources of low end buyers,and yesterday this was confirmed with a report that the increasing rates of divorce and separation amongst buyers with equity in shared homes meant that FTBers were being squeezed out of the housing market. (this was in print in Saturdays DT, I havent looked for an online source for it)



So, it seems that the drop in FTBers is not because the market is collapsing, but because there are other rivals for 'bottom rung' houses and thus from this aspect the market is still strong (there may of course be other reasons why it isnt).



BTW, the need for rental propertes for "squeezed out" FTBers no doubt means that things are not lost for BTL either? :-)



Need to get your thinking up to speed with 21st century society Crowley :-)


Hallelujah and praise the Lord. There's no need for first time buyers any more. :-0

The housing bubble is going to be maintained by....... DIVORCEES....God bless 'em ! ;-)

So the property market now depends on an ever increasing number of ruined marriages? Rather insidious beast, isn't it.

Well, as they apparently have more money to put down plus a higher income that FTBs, prices could rise!

And a vicious one, because apparently (according to the article but it seems reasonable) if you get into financial difficulties, that is a big cause of marriage/partnership failing! So, perversely, a rise in interest rates could , just possibly and only in theory you understand, cause financial difficulties which increases separations which therefore increases pressure on lower end housing which pushes prices UP!

I'm just waiting for the pronouncement from Crowley ..."I was wrong, prices will SOAR" :-)

That's a complete Catch 22, if a couple faces financial difficulties paying off a mortgage jointly then how could each manage with a mortgage of their own for a property bought at current prices and set at potentially higher rates, you're essentially doubling the liability and halving the earning potential, that doesn't stack up.

No doubt there are cases of some rich bastard getting kicked (for whatever reason) thus being forced to buy a new property whilst leaving the previously adoring wife in the marital home, but I'm not sure how reflective this is or how it in itself can sustain an entire housing market.

The market appears like a plague of locus, it has ravaged the first time buyer so it's now on to its next target, however it will get the stage where the market could ruin every marriage in the country yet still require new 'victims', maybe foreign investors? Things don't bode well looking at Shanghai. Maybe economic migrants earning 6 per hour yearning to take on a

200k mortgage liability?

Exponential growth is a curious thing.

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No way, also a popular choice for the newly separated and also aspiring brothel owners.

Daytona

per ardua ad astra eh ?

a 2 bed terrace in the back streets of Burnley will be half a million quid before long LOL

Much smaller house or flat than the previous large mansion they were living in. The sort of smaller house or flat a FTB would want in fact! Example, they are in a 400k house, they move into 150k houses or flats. Mortgage in total is 100k less. Rate might be less as they will each have a smaller mortgage, smaller percentage borrowed.

There you go, that was one on my list of potential FTB replacements I missed!

Definitely 2 beds looking at Daytona's message!

Hrm, true but smaller places have tended to inflate quicker than larger homes, for example small terraces have gone from 30k-40k to 120k-160k whilst a semi might of 'only' gone from 100k to 200k, so in that case it doesn't provide enough a couple of 150k shoebox apartments. If they bought that 400k place for 200k then they're not guaranteed a smaller mortgage, one of them isn't at least!

Also, who is going to buy these larger broken homes if the ladder is going into reverse and essentially cannibalising itself, normally they would be the second or third hop for FTB'ers, but they haven't been around for a while and cannot even afford the first rung let alone further up.

Obviously the mortgage lenders will be quietly trying to sabotage groups like Relate to make up for the fact many BTL'ers are now looking to the stock market, some are MEW'ing to buy shares! Intrepid souls!

Fortunately, there's no shortage of them. But where's the money coming from?

Eh? 'Per ardua ad astra' ('Through hard work to the stars') was apparently the motto of my late wife's school. The RAF seem to use it as well. Google suggests that 'ad astra per aspera' ('To the stars through difficulties') is the state motto of Kansas, though I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore.

Steve

"Hard work" is a marginal translation of ardua, "difficulties" lies closer to ardua than it does to aspera, which is more like "unpleasantnesses". That said, the two words are relatively synonymous in this context. The motto, in either form, just means that if you want to get to the top, don't expect an easy ride.

I maintain that my version is the more proper one, though, and in this I am supported by the net's answer to mob rule, namely (since you brought it up) Google:

'per ardua ad astra' scores only about 39.2k hits, whereas 'per aspera ad astra' scores 208k. 'ad astra per aspera' scores 104k, and 'ad astra per ardua' shows only 402 (no k).

Looks like "aspera" has it by a comfortable margin.

I think he is still due an apology for your 'peasant' comment , and I also hear some RAF pilots may be using your abode for bomb aiming practice.

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