...from the house price crash 'gurus'? I'm surprised* they didnt post this, so I will.
" House prices rose in October at their fastest pace in 15 months, Nationwide, the building society, said today.
The figures suggest the property market may be on the brink of an autumn rebound and led analysts to ponder whether further price rises will feed through in the new year."
etc etc
LOL
There are always people in the market prepared to buy. The question is, how many, and are they just creaming off the very best of what's available on today's overcrowded market?
Andrew McP
Hmmm, strange, everywhere I look houses are not selling and being reduced left, right and centre.
Nope, the housing figures from ... a mortagage lender ... they must be more reliable than my eyes.
Indeed they will be, since they monitor the actual prices of tens of thousands of prices nationwide, every month, whilst you wont actually have a clue what prices houses are sold for. Unless you are saying they are making them up? In which case, you will of course have documented evidence of that?
No, the question is, "are house prices falling"? And the answer seems to be, not at the moment.
In message , snipped-for-privacy@hotmail.com writes
Nothing unusual in this. Without other evidence, this is a function of the asking price, not the rate of change of selling prices.
Around me, asking prices are around 20% higher than selling prices of
12/14 months ago. If an asking price is reduced by 10%, (say, £400,000 to £360,000), and a property sells for 5% less than that, (£342,000), then the outcome is house prices rising - around 2-3% in this instant..
Being based on actual selling prices, rather than asking prices, definitely more reliable.
A leaf tossed on the breeze of sentiment still has to obey gravitational common sense eventually. Exactly when depends on how much hot air is blowing.
Andrew McP
This is the result of the usual october surge.... figures over the winter should see a return to a subdued market....
"Tumbleweed" wrote in message news: snipped-for-privacy@individual.net...
Or they are falling, but not everywhere - yet.
In message , Doug Ramage writes
It will be interesting to see the next Land Registry figures, but the fact is that, on average, they are rising so, if some areas are falling, some are rising faster than average.
The anecdotal evidence seems to be that it is asking prices which are falling from an excessive levels, rather than selling prices.
I've no doubt that prices will stabilise and probably fall, but I still dont think it will be the crash that a minority want to see - some to make their predictions of the past 5 years correct, and others because it makes good press.
In message , biggirlsblouse writes
This is a fallacy - estate agents benefit from volume sales rather than high prices, and they actually prefer a stable market where people acknowledge that they are going to get what they are going to get.
High house prices are a function of peoples greed and the competition between agents to get a house on the books. But, ultimately, estate agents want prices at which houses will sell.
It actually shows that house prices have risen incessantly, with the odd downward blip - so what goes down, also goes up again.
Wouldn't you say a bubble with people investing in property expecting capital gain increases the volume of sales?
Jim.
Richard, I take your point about asking prices - their movement is much easier to observe.
More difficult to say as to whether a crash (depending on definition) would be a good thing or a bad thing - other than for the relevant "winners" and "losers". Hopefully, once the speculators have left the scene, the UK property market will come more into balance.
The trouble with the whole house price lark is that there are so many regular updates from various sources that it's impossible to tell what's really happening. It's like weighing yourself every hour and trying to work out whether the diet's working.
The only figures that matter are from the land registry, but they lag so far behind they're almost useless as a predictive aid.
Andrew McP
Bitstring , from the wonderful person Jim Ley said
Possibly, but people do actually need someplace to live. Comparing 'housing bubble' with 'tulip bubble', or 'south sea bubble' is a bit disingenuous, unless you believe there are lots of 'optional' property owners.
Pricing is surely heavily distorted by the fact that investors (and not just seasoned investors with their heads firmly screwed on) have increasingly taken the place of first time buyers. Whether this is the start of a new longterm model for the housing market or merely a house of credit cards remains to be seen.
Andrew McP
Well I wasn't really commenting on whether there was a bubble or not, simply that Richard's analysis of Estate Agents not benefitting from a strongly rising market wasn't completely obvious.
Jim.
In message , Doug Ramage writes
It will do whatever the economy dictates, which may be a "crash" but, whatever happens, if people keep their heads down, economise, make sure that they do whatever they can to pay their mortgages, (including BTL's), it need not be as catastrophic as people tend to expect - and there will be fewer losers and winners..
As I have said before, many of the repossessions I experienced in the mid 90's were landlords who had ripped off the system, and there were very few situations where homeowners actually lost their homes. I accept that this was a very small sample - probably 50 +/- per annum for 5 or 6 years, in a very localised area, but I also heard anecdotal evidence from lenders and other agents to suggest that it was not untypical.
I also met many people who had their heads in the sand, and were just letting repossession happen. Both my father and I had experiences where we helped people to avoid possession on eviction day, (despite having a vested interest in the eviction taking place).
If you can hang on to your house/s, my money is on the market doing the same as it has done for the past 35-40 years and, at some time in the medium term, (7-10yrs), prices will rise again to well above their current levels.
X-No-Archive: yes In message , Richard Faulkner writes
If you take dipstick samples of property values every five years over the last century, through two world wars, two stock exchange crashes, one depression, national strikes, three-day weeks etc, one will probably discover that that the line on the graph is always upwards, ever up upwards.
If managing ones personal finances was a measurable skill, the line would show a logarithmic plunge into an abyss.
As our spogs turned thirteen, my wife and I decided to give them all their incidental payments, such as school luncheon money, fares, clothing, pocket money etc as a monthly lump sum. Initially there were disasters with a lot of month left at the end of the money and they had to be bailed out, but they soon learned to manage their affairs with a high degree of skill which has stood them in good stead.
In message , Andrew MacPherson writes
As far as I can see, the Halifax, nationwide, and Land Registry figures are based on fact, and tend to tell a similar story - on the whole.
Some of the others are based on marketplace experience - from agents and surveyors - these give a more up to date snapshot based on subjective educated guessing.
Others are based on asking prices, and give a snapshot of how sellers perceive the marketplace - whilst based on actual figures, sellers have a tendency to react more quickly to a rising market, and more slowly to a falling market.
I think that, together, they help to form a better picture, than any one set on its' own
Having looked at the web site, the July-September figures should be out next week - only 6 weeks from the end of the quarter. Doesnt seem too much of a lag to me.
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