"Its different this time". They said the same before and during the last crash.

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More attention seeking drivel from the dribbling one.

Reply to
Crowley
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ie...still no response creepy.....

someone might notice if you keep raving....

Reply to
abelard

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Pleeze buoy sum of me dockumints, mistah !

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Reply to
Chris X

I've just been keeping you company Abelard because I feel sorry for you particularly as noone else on here is paying you any attention as usual.

However, even someone as tolerant and patient as I am has limits when dealing with psycho-geriatrics like you and now that you've become abusive I'm going to leave you to dribble alone.

Its your own fault you know. You should take the tablets nurse gives you.

Reply to
Crowley

Quite possibly. I was just questioning your apparent assumption that the fact newspaper reports were making the same predictions they were in previous years, it's at all same to assume similar things will follow

*unless* you also take into account other factors that are clearly important, such as people's fears (or lack of them) that the cost of servicing a mortgage they take out today will rise sharply over the next few years. Other factors I'd think you should bear in mind include how confident people feel about their jobs and about employment prospects in general.

Just reproducing the newspapers' predictions about house prices proves nothing particular one way or the other about anything other than the accuracy of the predictions.

Steve

Reply to
Stephen Glynn

Eh? The point was that even if you sell at a profit, that doesn't mean property ownership *at this point in time* is necessarily a Good Thing. I think that was Doug's point which you originally replied to. Bleeding obvious, maybe, but you seem to take issue with it.

Doh! My crystal ball has run out of batteries. I'm not making any predictions about the future and haven't done so in this thread.

The point was that falling prices wouldn't necessarily make people "unlikely to sell unless forced to", as you claimed.

I'm not proposing anyone takes any particular action. What makes you think I am??

You asked "and who would be BTLing anyway for them to rent from if prices were falling?"

I answered that question.

Reply to
Andy Pandy

Really? Given that a deflationary context would likely mean the asset on which the loan is secured is deflating, negative equity would be increasing year on year and so the security the lender has for the loan would be decreasing year on year. Doesn't sound like a good deal from the lender's POV.

Reply to
Andy Pandy

And live in a cardboard box?

The economic reality is that if interest rates were 0%, inflation would have to be very low or negative (like in Japan).

Reply to
Andy Pandy

Not if you were in negative equity, or you didn't fulfil the requirements you did 25 years ago (eg if you've retired).

Reply to
Andy Pandy

Of course there is. What do you think a mortgage is "secured" on?

Reply to
Andy Pandy

still no response creepy....even hakky is trying to rescue you now! the ultimate in shame...

Reply to
abelard

a different issue.... depends eg on the proportion of the original loan to the then assessed market price.... also depends on whether the borrower is capable of, or willing to, offer more security...

Reply to
abelard

a form of equity is reputation.

Reply to
abelard

loans are secured against various 'equity'..... you're not understanding some very basic market issues....

if you buy a tv on a loan (hp) it's resale value rapidly falls... same with a new car...you can still get loans if your reputation ('credit rating') is ok.... large numbers of people kept paying mortgages on loans greater than the (then) present value (price) of housing....

for the lender there was/is very little 'security' in your mistaken understanding of that term....

sane lenders make risk assessments.... part of interest is in payment for risks... that is why idiots have to pay 10 or 20% to credit cards.... the issuers allow for a %age of bad debts... issuing sufficient numbers of such debts acts as insurance against the failures/'swindlers'/ defaulters....

Reply to
abelard

So you think it might be a good thing, or it might not? I think most here would agree that one of those statements was true! Nicely covered.

Thats because your predictions are about the past! "Oh look prices fell, you really should have sold a year ago". So?

I claimed that someone in negative equity was unlikely to sell.

Because you started with a comment that it wasnt so clever to have stuck with their investment 'when their rabbit hutch was no longer worth 500k". So AFAICS you are criticising people for not knowing when prices would fall (and then sell, by implication).

Reply to
Tumbleweed

Can you give some average figures for then and now?

Reply to
mogga

"Crowley" wrote

The last time (base rates) interest rates *were* 6% in the UK, it was year

2000 (and Jan.'01).

Let's "imagine" that the effects would be the same as then -- and we'd be heading for rampant house price inflation over the next five years ... !!

Reply to
Tim

The year 2000 was a 'different world' as I'm sure you know.

That was before the recent 3/4 year spending spree (both public and Government) which has left the UK with 1.3 trillion pounds (and rising) in consumer debt, 66% rise in repossessions, first-time-buyers down to

9% (from an historical average of around 40%), rising bankruptcies, a recession in the retail sector, record trade deficit, a 10 billion pounds hole in the public finances which will require extensive tax rises, sterling significantly down against the dollar etc.

We've had the rampant house price inflation and the spending spree and now its gotta be paid for.

Reply to
Crowley

What are you on about? If you take out a mortgage, and refuse to pay the interest/loan repayments demanded by the lender, and refuse to negotiate with them, they will take possession of the house, sell it, and chase you for the rest of the debt if there is any.

Reply to
Andy Pandy

Which won't interest the lender if they don't think you have the ability to service the loan.

Reply to
Andy Pandy

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