I doubt it or the number would be much larger than 750k. Anyway, I believe that was the top estimate, and IIRC the bottom estimate was only double what an avarage winters death toll from 'ordinary' flu is. Lets face it they really have no clue and are just making the numbers up*. They dont know when it will mutate, how contagious it will be, how serious, how efffective vaccination and anti-virals will be, etc. And if it is really deadly, then it wont spread as much as if its mild (because people will die before they can spread it much), so the virus will also continue to mutate and evolve to a less serious form, just as the AIDS virus appears to be doing from what I've read. Standard textbook stuff.
Yes the 50K figure sounded more plausible, unless you have friends or family affected I doubt the country will even notice that, still look on the bright side, that's one less new town John Prescott will have to build on the London flood plain. I suspect the country/planet could cope with death rates right up to 50-75% although that would be a lot of work for grave diggers.
The last upward cycle for house prices started around 1995 and continued for 9 years extended as it was by the entry of unprecedented numbers of BTLs (particularly after the stock market crash in 2001) and by historicaly low interest rates after the Iraq war and easy access to high levels of credit (5x income, self-cert etc)
This upward cycle came to a halt last summer since when house prices have been falling (-3.5% YOY according to Hometrack) We are now on the downward cycle for house prices and historical precedence and economic fundamentals suggest this will last at least 4/5 years. Experience shows that house prices are initially "sticky" on the way down, hardly surprising as we all want to get the maximum price for our house.
Sadly for would-be sellers however the market in sales has slowed considerably with volumes down between 30 to 50% and more across the country. With volumes collapsing, sentiment changing, and the growing realisation the HPI has ended (not to mention all the other emerging economic gloom)the only way for house prices is down and at an accelerating rate from now on. The news this week that repossessions are on the rise (by 61% YOY) suggests growing numbers of debt-ridden forced sellers.
On fundamentals house prices are almost 50% overvalued as a ratio of income.* I can see them dropping by that much in poorer areas where nothing solid exists to prop them up (after trebling in some places)otherwise I expect to see at least 20 to 30% falls generally within 2/3 years which would restore some equilibrium to the market.
In 4/5 years time the whole merry-go-round will start up again total economic collapsing notwithstanding. :-)
Thats right for most people. The important message for would-be-buyers IMO is "don't buy now"; wait for price falls and save yourself thousands or, spend the same, but get a better house.
Bear in mind though that lenders tend to be more restrictive in extending credit after market falls so save hard now to increase the size of your deposit for when you eventually come to buy.
Thing is that it's coinciding this time with the start of the downward cycle in credit ( a 70 year approx cycle). The downside of a credit cycle normally lasts 16-18 years (as in Japan).
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