Lottery syndicate - is this guy breaking any laws?

Sounds like a Horace Bachelor character.

And what laws would those be?

CRF

As the numbers drawn are entirely random, there is no guaranteed system to improve our chances. How can you predict entropy?

The difference is very subtle. Say, if you buy a ticket every week, then you essentially put some effort into the possibility of winning multiple jackpots at the expense of winning just one jackpot:

Imagine an urn (it's always an urn) with 100 balls (it's always balls). Then if you draw out one ball every week and replace it, this corresponds to buying a fresh ticket every week. If you continue for 100 weeks, the probability of winning at least one jackpot is the probability of not losing every week, this is equal to 1-(0.99)^100 = 0.634

However, if you draw out all the balls in one week instead, the probability of wining a jackpot is = 1, i.e. the probability of a jackpot is higher than when spreading the play over 100 weeks, but you will only get one jackpot.

The difference is very subtle. Say, if you buy a ticket every week, then you essentially put some effort into the possibility of winning multiple jackpots at the expense of winning just one jackpot:

Imagine an urn (it's always an urn) with 100 balls (it's always balls). Then if you draw out one ball every week and replace it, this corresponds to buying a fresh ticket every week. If you continue for 100 weeks, the probability of winning at least one jackpot is the probability of not losing every week, this is equal to 1-(0.99)^100 = 0.634

However, if you draw out all the balls in one week instead, the probability of wining a jackpot is = 1, i.e. the probability of a jackpot is higher than when spreading the play over 100 weeks, but you will only get one jackpot.

That's what I'm asking.

To me it seems that it is wrong to make misleading claims in order to get money out of people, I therefore thought that there may be laws against it.

If it where true, they would have locked up Gordon Brown years ago.

Gaz

That still begs the question is it illegal? Nothing I've seen on the said website suggests anything illegal!

CRF

Yes, I understand that, but buying 44 tickets in the same week according to the above method gives you no advantage over buying 44 different random tickets in the same week, and I imagine that if you do it via his syndicate, he takes a cut.

The chap actually claims that:

"with one less number than normal to have to match, your chances of scooping the top prize increase from 1 in 14 million to only 1 in 1.9 million. That's a whopping 702% greater chance of scooping the jackpot. What a difference!""

Now, 49!/(5!(49-5)!) = 1906884 ~ 1.9 million, I agree, but that's considerably less improvement than I would expect from buying 44 tickets at random.

You can put subtle emphasis on the lower wins such as 3,4 or 5 correct numbers. The sequence shown is actually a poor choice for the lower wins, since the same numbers are repeated. By repeating the numbers, the effort is are put on multiple ticket wins (of 3, 4, or 5 numbers) at the expense of the possibility of just a single ticket win. Hence it then becomes more like an 'all or nothing' game. The entropy, if you like, is conserved. A better strategy, if you're just interested in a higher chance of just winning something, rather than a smaller chance of a higher win, is to spread the numbers as much as possible over the tickets. However, chances of a significant win are still like finding contact lenses in the desert.

As far as I can see, if the aim is solely for the jackpot, then it doesn't matter what he does; 44 (different) tickets are 44 different tickets, no matter what.

However, playing solely for the jackpot is plainly stupid, since chances are so incredibly small.

Yes, I agree, which is why I think it is wrong to try to sell some system which claims to give you an advantage. Hence my original question.

Again I agree, in fact I don't think playing at all is sensible.

Can you put your finger on what exactly is wrong with his maths?

Another subtlety is that you're in principle not allowed to play in a systematic way. The win could be made null and void. So if you ever find a system, then better keep it to yourself :-)

Two things, which I admit I'm not entirely sure about:

1) A factor of 7 improvement is only 600% not 700% (since 100% improvement is a factor of two) so the statement below is incorrect.

"And with one less number than normal to have to match, your chances of scooping the top prize increase from 1 in 14 million to only 1 in 1.9 million, That's a whopping 702% greater chance of scooping the jackpot. What a difference!"

2) If you buy 44 (different) tickets your chances of winning are 44 times better not 7 times better. I'm not sure if this is a mistake on his part, his profit margin or me not understanding his system correctly.

Now I've read the site and am convinced it's a fallacy.

The number of tickets are 49*48*47*46*45*44/(2*3*4*5*6) = 13983816 ~ 14 mill

His argument is that the number of tickets on a 5-numbers play would be 49*48*47*46*45/(2*3*4*5) = 1906884 ~ 1.9 mill

Hence, his argument goes: If you can convert the game into a 5-numbers game, then you get 44 tickets, each with a 700% higher chance. However, this argument is baloney, since he is not freezing a particular slot by using all the numbers 1-49 on the pile of tickets.

Plenty,

but lets not put maths in the way of gullibility.

There are folks in here who genuinely belive that by buying two tickets they have doubled their chances of winning. What they dont realise is that they'd have to multiply their chances of winning by approx 14 million to be guaranteed a jackpot, all they have 'doubled' is their chance of winning from 1 in 14 million to 2 in 14 million.

i.e. two tickets does not halve the odds from 14 to 7 million, but from 14 million to 13,999,999...

but like I said, the public are easily mislead on simple mathematics - political statisticians have been doing it for ages.

g.

What a load of bollocks. You have a choice of any number from 1-49 in any combination and you can buy as many tickets as you like.

The only restrictions on purchase of UK national lottery tickets are the funds available and the stupidity of the purchaser.

Agreed. But that's just the way Sun readers think. A car at 90mph is in fact three times as fast as one at 30mph, but this is typically and incorrectly said as "three times faster". In fact "three times faster" is 300% faster, or four times as fast.

See? You're doing it as well now. That should be 44 or 7 times as good, or 43 or 6 times better. You are a Sun reader and I claim my free 44 lottery tickets! :-)

That's not what he's saying. He's saying that the chance of picking

5 numbers correctly is 7 times as high as that of picking 6 numbers correctly, and that by the simple expedient of beefing up your stake by a factor of 44, and covering all possibilities for the 6th number, you can be guaranteed a 6-ball win if your 5 numbers come up.

However, what you're saying, and I agree, is that if you were to buy 44 tickets which are different in a random way, then your chance of winning is about 44/14M, whereas if the 44 tickets are different in his systematic way, the chances are only 1/1.9M, or 7 times as good, and so the system is only a sixth or so as good as no system, if the target is a jackpot win.

But even a 5-ball win is pretty unlikely, and so what we must look to is how much of an improvement over random picks, if any, the system gives on lesser wins.